4 realistic expectations for Commanders QB Jayden Daniels in 2024

Jayden Daniels' TD percentage/TD-INT ratio

There is no single quarterback stat that guarantees a team’s overall success. However, if you’re one of those fans who likes to have one go-to number to make a point, total touchdowns is the one you should use. That's what typically dictates if a campaign is successful or not.

There is nothing more important for a quarterback than generating touchdowns. Since generating touchdowns doesn’t necessarily mean throwing touchdown passes, the percentage rate is a little bit better gauge than the raw number.

A quarterback who runs the ball into the end zone like Jalen Hurts might not have the same raw total of touchdown passes. Similarly, if a running back rushes for a lot of scores, it may impact his signal-caller's total. Even though the man under center was instrumental in setting up the points more often than not.

Touchdown percentage shows how often a quarterback’s pass results in a score. Only five rookie quarterbacks have achieved a touchdown percentage over 5% in our sample group.

Looking at those quarterbacks reveals why the touchdown-interception ratio needs to also be considered. Baker Mayfield posted the highest number. Daniel Jones and Marcus Mariota also had percentages over five. The other two were Dak Prescott and Justin Herbert.

Whereas Mayfield, Mariota, and Jones had respectable touchdown-interception ratios hovering around 2:1, Herbert’s was more than 3:1. Prescott’s was an astonishing 6:1. So these elite rookie seasons had quarterbacks who were generating plenty of touchdowns while rarely turning the ball over. That is a recipe for success at any level.

A touchdown rate in the mid-fours with a TD/INT ratio well over 2:1 is a very good, but realistic, expectation for Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels in 2024. It’s essentially what Gardner Minshew did during his surprise rookie season back in 2019.

Daniels has the tools to accomplish this feat. However, much will depend on the Commanders' offensive line and whether it can stand the inevitable barrage coming its way.