4 realistic expectations for Commanders QB Jayden Daniels in 2024

Jayden Daniels' passer rating vs. QBR

We don’t need to go into this rabbit hole very far.

Suffice it to say that stat geeks are always trying to invent a more accurate formula to judge a quarterback’s play. Passer rating is still the most common composite. The newer and more nuanced QBR is somewhat more sophisticated. Neither is perfect. But they remain good tools to broadly judge how well a quarterback is performing.

In our sample group, just six quarterbacks scored ratings over 90 during their rookie season. A rating of 90 generally places you in the middle of the NFL these days.

For instance, last season, Joe Burrow was just over 90, while Jalen Hurts was just under. During the same period, just seven rookie quarterbacks had QBRs over 55. That number also lands you in the midrange levels around the NFL. Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence hovered around that number in 2023. Both have been paid handsomely since.

Because the composite formulas are different, only three rookies made both lists - a passer rating of more than 90 and a QBR over 55. Two of them should come as no surprise. Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott. I’m going to withhold the third name for a bit because I want to make a point about these numbers at the conclusion. I’m also a bit of a drama queen.

Again, we’re not expecting Jayden Daniels will have one of the greatest seasons ever for a rookie signal caller. But a rating pushing 90 and a QBR hovering around 55 are reasonable expectations if he plays well.

Daniels is capable of meeting this target. He's accurate at all three levels of the field and generally efficient with the football. Limiting turnovers will be key, which can often be a rookie quarterback's downfall during their NFL baptism against veteran players who don't want to be shown up by an upstart emerging from the college ranks.