As top-100 draft picks go, Luke McCaffrey has promised more than he's delivered, but there are some compelling reasons for the Washington Commanders to believe everything is about to change for the wide receiver.
Those reasons are based on what the new offensive coordinator, David Blough, will mean for McCaffrey. Specifically, how different Xs and Os will be more suited to what he does well than what the previous play-caller, Kliff Kingsbury, had the converted quarterback running.
The bull case for Blough's impact on the 2024 third-round pick has been made by Locked On Commanders podcast host David Harrison. He pointed out how underlying trends within McCaffrey's numbers suggest more is to come from the former Rice star:
"He's 62nd in yards per catch. So, he hasn't been all that dangerous when he does get the ball. 13th in yards per catch after reception or yards after catch per reception. So, he does show that when he has the ability to or when he has the opportunity to create yards after catch, he does that. 32nd in catch percentage. So, his hands are solid.
"I think the potential is clearly there. Right? You got a great catch rate. You've got a good yards-after-catch ability which show he has the ability to be solid short intermediate as a slot. I think more often than anything, he just needs a scheme that's going to accentuate his abilities, honestly."
That's a bold take about a wideout who has produced a mediocre output since entering the pros. McCaffrey has made just four starts, gotten 39 targets, and snagged 29 receptions through two years.
Commanders' new offense should be well-suited to Luke McCaffrey's skill set
This is a modest backdrop from which to predict McCaffrey is primed for bigger things. So why does Harrison believe there's still upside from a receiver many believe hasn't developed enough?
One argument in McCaffrey's favor is that he's never had a fair chance within the system Kingsbury designed and called. Harrison cited problems with the concepts, but also suggested the wideout was overshadowed by more experienced personnel and bigger names:
"I don't think a vertical attack with a few short and quick options while on a roster with Zack Ertz and Deebo Samuel was ever going to accentuate what Luke McCaffrey does best. Being a multi-layered attack that features more parallel routes, but isn't bogged down by an overabundance of short area operators is going to get McCaffrey, I think, more consistent usage, more consistent opportunities."
It's easy to trace a line from what Harrison envisages from a Blough-called passing game, and how that will help unlock McCaffrey's physical talents. He's a 6-foot-2, 195-pounder with the frame to win over the middle.
McCaffery's experience as a college quarterback gives him an above-average understanding of how to get open. When to sit down in zones and how to present the kind of target that can make life easier for the player occupying football's most important position.
All of those things should better endear him to franchise signal-caller Jayden Daniels, but there's one more reason McCaffrey can feature in the pages of Blough's playbook.
It will be different for Washington on the ground in 2026, thanks to Blough's preference to put Daniels under center more often. This alignment will better disguise run and pass intent, both pre- and post-snap, than Kingsbury's preferred pistol formations, but the type of runs being called will also change.
A zone-style rushing attack, featuring stretch plays to stress the edges of defenses and manufacture cutback lanes, requires different things from Commanders' wideouts. Notably, being physical enough to win blocking assignments.
Staying on blocks is an essential trait for receivers in the Ben Johnson offense, which Blough witnessed firsthand with the Detroit Lions. Unfortunately, the Commanders aren't exactly loaded with receivers who can put defenders on skates.
That's not how you'd define returning veteran Dyami Brown, nor last year's fourth-round pick Jaylin Lane. It means there's a clear path to McCaffrey getting onto the field more often.
He's a big enough body to seal the edges by absorbing defensive backs on the perimeter. McCaffrey can also be an asset if the Commanders follow the growing league-wide trend to deploy multiple tight ends.
Blough fielding two or even three tight ends, while McCaffrey lines up at receiver, will give Daniels and the Commanders greater capacity to disguise run and pass. The quarterback or any member of the backfield committee would surely feast behind this look.
There are more than a few signs pointing toward the change from Kingsbury to Blough being the catalyst McCaffrey needs to finally ignite his Commanders career.
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