Sometimes it’s easy to predict who your team will choose in the first round of the NFL Draft. Sometimes it isn't.
In two of the last five years, the Washington Commanders have had the No. 2 pick. Though nothing was 100 percent certain, the selections of both Chase Young (2020) and Jayden Daniels (2024) came as no surprise.
In 2021, despite drafting No. 19, it was understood that Jamin Davis would be the pick. In the other two years, 2022 and 2023, Jahan Dotson and Emmanuel Forbes Jr. came largely out of left field.
This year, it is even harder to focus on one or two consensus options because the Commanders are picking at No. 29 overall.
A lot of variables will play out before that choice, which will affect what Adam Peters does. Some analysts are predicting a trade to recoup some of the picks he gave up to acquire Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel Sr. Others have the Commanders taking a wide range of prospects across multiple positions. There is no strong consensus.
Or is there?
If you pore over dozens of mock drafts from knowledgeable sources, two names tend to come up concerning the Commanders in the first round. These are Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka and Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr.
But which one would be the best fit for Washington if both were available?
Emeka Egbuka could be a major asset to Commanders' receiver room
- Name: Emeka Egbuka
- Position: Wide Receiver
- Height: 6-foot-1
- Weight: 202 pounds
- Recruiting History: Highly recruited out of Washington state, Egbuka received offers from many major programs. He chose Ohio State in part due to their track record developing pro receivers (such as Terry McLaurin).
Egbuka is generally considered the fourth or fifth-best receiver prospect in what is being labeled as a mediocre class. If that sounds like a prospect that does not merit first-round consideration, consider this. I can’t think of any wideout who has entered the league more ready to play from Day 1 in the last five years.
There may be limits to what Egbuka can provide, but he has an exceptionally high floor.
The Washington native has been a productive receiver at an elite program for three seasons. Egbuka caught more than 200 passes in his 49 games, scoring 24 touchdowns and gaining almost 3,000 receiving yards. He managed this while sharing targets with the likes of Garrett Wilson, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., Jeremiah Smith, and Carnell Tate.
Egbuka has been as consistent as they come, be it in a September game against Marshall or the National Championship. He simply makes plays.
Physically, Egbuka shows no weaknesses. He has good size and strength. His 4.45-second speed in the 40-yard dash is well above average. When you add in his technical prowess — route running and good hands — there is nothing to complain about.
So why are other prospects with less experience and production rated above him on some boards? Egbuka does not have a single elite trait. He has made plenty of big plays in college, but he does not seem to scare defenses the same way some bigger, faster receivers do. Some scouts do not consider his ceiling to be as high as other NFL hopefuls.
More importantly, Egbuka has played almost his entire college career in the slot. He profiles to be an outstanding option in the pros, but can he provide more than that?
That is the great unknown.
James Pearce Jr. would provide explosiveness to Commanders' pass rush
- Name: James Pearce Jr.
- Position: Edge Rusher
- Height: 6-foot-5
- Weight: 245 pounds
- Recruiting History: 4-star recruit from North Carolina, Pearce drew offers from a half dozen SEC programs before selecting Tennessee in 2022.
If you were designing an edge rusher in the lab, you couldn’t improve very much on James Pearce Jr.
His length and speed are exceptional. He has been clocked at 4.47 seconds in the 40-yard dash, a time that would be quite respectable for a wide receiver or cornerback. Even more importantly, his 10-yard split is equally elite, as is his broad jump.
That physical ability showed up plenty of times on the field. He was a disruptive force in the backfield, either sacking the quarterback (17.5 over his final two seasons) or blowing up runners (27.5 tackles for loss in those two years). Pearce was a force rushing from the weak side, lining up wide and simply exploding past whoever tried to block him. Statistically, he was among the most productive pass rushers in the country.
The question that needs to be answered is whether Pearce can do more than be a weakside pass rusher. He does not have a thick frame and will need to prove he can hold up against professional linemen on running plays. The Commanders can't have any more weaknesses against the run.
Despite his physical dominance, Pearce didn’t start regularly for the Volunteers until his final season and was not on the field as often as might have been expected. Does that suggest a durability issue? Can Pearce become more than a third-down pass-rush specialist?
Which prospect is a better fit for the Commanders?
If you are looking at this question in terms of need, the answer is obvious.
The Commanders would love to provide more offensive weapons for Daniels, but they do not need a wide receiver. The wideout corps is currently headed up by Terry McLaurin and Samuel at the top of the pyramid. They are also hoping to see a big step forward from second-year receiver Luke McCaffrey in 2025.
They have intriguing deep threats in Noah Brown and Michael Gallup, along with K.J. Osborn hoping to revive his career. Kliff Kingsbury can even flex out players like Ben Sinnott, Colson Yankoff, and Austin Ekeler to provide additional receiving firepower.
On the other hand, the Commanders have a major hole on the edge. Dante Fowler Jr. is gone. Frankie Luvu was a good pass rusher last season, but no one else recorded more than five sacks. More tellingly, Washington did not have a single defensive player in the top 50 in quarterback hits in 2024. They need pass-rushing talent.
If that were the only consideration, Pearce would be the easy choice. Were Peters to select him, he could probably still find a promising receiver with his pick late in the second round. This year does not have a lot of elite-level pass-catchers, but it does boast a solid group.
Some intriguing edge rushers might be tempting in round two should Peters pass on Pearce. However, receiving options still seem more promising at this stage of the process.
Should it come down to these two players, the choice in round one should be Egbuka.
With rare exceptions, round-one picks should never be forced by need. Teams should take the best player. Egbuka is going to be a very good pro. Perhaps he will be even better than that. A perennial Pro Bowler is not out of reach, but he will be a productive starter for years to come.
Pearce may turn into a prolific performer. The thought of letting Ryan Kerrigan work with him for a couple of years is enough to make fans start salivating. But he is also a classic boom-or-bust candidate.
For a team like the Commanders, who still have plenty of roster holes despite their recent success, the risk is not worth taking. Peters has to hit on his first-round pick.
If South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori is still on the board at No. 29, the Commanders should pivot accordingly. Consensus mocks have him going in the mid-20s, perhaps to the Minnesota Vikings. If he falls, take him in a heartbeat and break open champagne.