Redskins: A diplomatic, statistical analysis of Alex Smith vs. Kirk Cousins
By Ian Cummings
What it means for the Redskins
Looking at the full picture, years back, it’s hard to say that either Smith or Cousins is definitively better than the other. Both are solid starters in the NFL, and both should do well with their new teams in 2018.
But in 2017, Smith was easily better than Cousins.
Alex Smith was more efficient than Cousins, and while in years past, Smith was known as a conservative game manager, he dispelled that reputation with his job on the line in 2017, earning a new reputation as one of the league’s best deep passers; an uber-effective game manager with the guts of a gunslinger.
Smith will miss Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but the Redskins’ receivers can make plays down the field, nonetheless. Josh Doctson showed his potential last year, and now, fully healthy and with more confidence, he could make a leap. Paul Richardson, meanwhile, has the sheer speed and route running ability to gain separation, and while Jamison Crowder doesn’t have that top-end speed, he can get open in the slot with his crisp quickness and route running as well.
The Redskins don’t have Tyreek Hill. But they do have a ton of weapons. Even Vernon Davis is a big play threat. Smith is just as well-equipped to succeed in D.C. as he was in K.C. It is worth noting that, in a Riggo’s Rag Podcast episode, KC Kingdom writer Travis Steffen stated that Smith doesn’t often take contested chances downfield; many of his attempts last year were made when receivers had separation (which isn’t a bad thing; it simply might spell doubt for Josh Doctson’s projected leap, or at least the magnitude of it). However, Steffen also said that Smith gives what his coaches ask of him. With Jay Gruden in Smith’s ear, he should keep taking chances, and with his natural precision, his arm could be a deadly one with the Redskins.
On one hand, Smith’s 2017 performance is an anomaly, compared to his career before that point. But on the other hand, 2017 Smith is the most updated version of Alex Smith. It’s hard to imagine him regressing back to his former self when he’s joining a coach who was known to get on Kirk Cousins’ case for taking too few risks, and he’s entering a situation where he has more suitable weapons than he did in Kansas City last year.
Next: Why the 2018 season will be pivotal for Jamison Crowder
The offensive line has to stay healthy, and it will be up to several new additions, such as Paul Richardson (who, with his red zone ability and downfield speed, could be very, very important) and talented rookie running back Derrius Guice, to smoothen Smith’s transition. But Smith is a veteran. He’s reportedly already comfortable with the scheme, and with time to gain chemistry with his weapons, he can put the memories of Kirk Cousins to bed, and fast.
Extra: Per the request of a reader, here are all the NFC East quarterbacks, along with Kirk Cousins, and several correlating advanced metrics from 2017, acquired via Player Profiler:
TPR = True Passer Rating TC% = True Completion Percentage AYPA = Air Yards Per Attempt
Eli Manning: 88.0 TPR, 67.7 TC%, 3.3 AYPA, 11 money throws, 26 INT passes, 30 danger plays
Dak Prescott: 92.2 TPR, 67.0 TC%, 4.1 AYPA, 13 money throws, 23 INT passes, 30 danger plays
Alex Smith: 113.6 TPR, 73.3 TC%, 4.2 AYPA, 27 money throws, 16 INT passes, 21 danger plays *
Carson Wentz: 110.5 TPR, 65.4 TC%, 4.7 AYPA, 23 money throws, 20 INT passes, 32 danger plays
Kirk Cousins: 101.0 TPR, 69.3 TC%, 3.7 AYPA, 15 money throws, 25 INT passes, 35 danger plays
*– Alex Smith had 27 money throws in 2017, second only to Russell Wilson, who had 28.