Redskins: A diplomatic, statistical analysis of Alex Smith vs. Kirk Cousins
By Ian Cummings
Redskins QB Debate – Money throws, danger plays
We’ve touched on a lot of advanced quarterback metrics, but there are three categories on Player Profiler that we haven’t yet observed: Money throws, interceptable throws, and danger plays.
Per the Player Profiler site, a money throw is defined as “a pass requiring exceptional skill or athleticism, as well as critical throws executed in clutch moments”. Interceptable passes are fairly self-explanatory, and danger plays are defined as “any play the quarterback lacked awareness or took an unnecessary risk that could have resulted in a turnover”. These categories are about as purely focused on quarterbacks as stats can get. And Alex Smith was better than Kirk Cousins in all three of these statistical categories.
With the definition of money throws in mind, Smith logged 27 such throws over the course of the 2017 season, good for second place among the league’s quarterbacks, while Cousins, on 35 more passing attempts, only threw 15, good for ninth.
On the flip side, Cousins, in 2017, exceeded Smith’s numbers in the worst categories to do so. Cousins was one of the top ten worst quarterbacks in the NFL when it came to both interceptable passes and danger plays. Cousins threw 25 interceptable passes (ninth-worst) and executed 35 danger plays (sixth-worst). Smith, meanwhile, threw just 16 interceptable passes (seventh-least) and executed 21 danger plays (tenth-least).
For perspective, Deshone Kizer was the worst in the NFL in both categories, throwing 35 interceptable passes and executing a whopping 51 danger plays. Cousins wasn’t anywhere near Kizer, but he wasn’t particularly close to Smith, either. Cousins was closer to the midpoint between Smith and Kizer. It paints an interesting picture about Cousins’ level of play, in relation to Smith.
Danger plays aren’t necessarily bad; it depends on what kind of danger play it is. Risks have to be taken sometimes in the NFL, but if a quarterback lacks awareness, then it is truly a cause for concern. Thus, having less danger plays is better, and Smith was easily better than Cousins, in that regard. This isn’t to say that Cousins was a bad quarterback. But in terms of awareness, precision, decisiveness, and safety, Smith is a kind of quarterback that Jay Gruden hasn’t had yet. Cousins might take more risks, but Smith is ultimately more efficient, and last year, he showed he could take some risks of his own as well.
Oh, and one more thing: Smith was No. 1 in the NFL on play action completion percentage, with a 75 percent completion percentage. No. 1. The Redskins like play action. And now they have a running back worthy of attention from defenses. That could be huge. #RPOs for days.