Redskins: A diplomatic, statistical analysis of Alex Smith vs. Kirk Cousins

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KANSAS CITY, MP – JANUARY 15: Quarterback Alex Smith #11 of the Kansas City Chiefs runs out of the pocket against the Pittsburgh Steelers during the second quarter in the AFC Divisional Playoff game at Arrowhead Stadium on January 15, 2017 in Kansas City, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images) /

Redskins QB Debate – Advanced Stats

First, let’s gloss over the sample size. In 2017, Kirk Cousins played 581 passing snaps, while Smith played 579. On those snaps, Cousins registered 540 pass attempts, while Smith came in at 505 (It is notable that Smith sat a game toward the end of the season due to an injury; Pat Mahomes started in his place). So from an opportunities standpoint, Cousins and Smith were nearly equal. Cousins averaged 33.8 passing attempts per game, while Smith, who played just fifteen games, averaged 33.7.

Delving into the intricacies of the game, it’s clear that there are two specific passing categories that bear great importance, in terms of moving the football and scoring touchdowns: Red zone passing, and deep passing. In both these categories (but moreso deep ball passing), Smith was better than Cousins in 2017. With similar snap opportunities, Smith passed for 13 red zone touchdowns and no interceptions, while Cousins threw 17 touchdowns and three interceptions.

Cousins’ touchdown number is better, and his completion percentage in that area was also slightly better. But the interceptions are not ideal. With his three red zone interceptions, Cousins is tied with only Dak Prescott and Brett Hundley, and second in that category to Deshone Kizer alone, who had six red zone interceptions last year.

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Smith’s 38 incompletions, in relation to Cousins’ 32, isn’t an ideal number. After all, with each incompletion, a down is lost. But Smith is clearly a safer quarterback in scoring territory. He might not take as many close-quarters risks, but he won’t end promising drives with zero points. At the least, he’ll end them with three points. And with a bevy of promising red zone targets in D.C., along with a talented running back in Derrius Guice, Smith should be well-suited for success in his new offense (It’s also worth noting that new Redskins WR Paul Richardson was one of the league’s most successful receivers on end zone targets; Russell Wilson, when passing to Richardson in the end zone, had a perfect passer rating).

Pivoting to deep passing, it’s apparent that Smith wasn’t just better than Cousins, but one of the best in the NFL, in 2017. Smith had just one less deep passing attempt than Kirk Cousins (69 to 68). Factoring in the one game lost by injury, the difference is of minimal importance.

What is important is that Alex Smith, according to NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, was the best deep passer in the NFL in 2017. Judged by four categories (Deep passer rating, deep pass completion percentage, percentage of total yards, and touchdown rate on deep passes), Smith boasted a first-place ranking in three of those four categories. On deep passes, Smith logged an insane 134.7 passer rating, a completion rate of 54.2 percent (the next highest was Drew Brees with 46 percent), a percentage of total yards of thirty percent, and a touchdown rate of 18.6 percent. Kirk Cousins was ranked as the ninth-best deep passer in the same article. Both quarterbacks were good. But Smith was in a league of his own.

Even though Smith still had the league’s highest deep passer rating without Tyreek Hill, the notion that Hill didn’t immensely help Smith is wrong. The utilization of a pure deep threat like Hill drastically improved the Chiefs’ offense; having a player with that kind of speed and tracking ability is a luxury that the Redskins have lacked since DeSean Jackson. And until Paul Richardson proves it, they don’t have it. So they’ll have to help Smith a different way.

The final two advanced stats on Player Profiler, for quarterbacks, are labeled “Supporting Cast Efficiency” and “Protection Rate”. Respectively, these criteria measure the efficiency of a quarterback’s entire supporting cast, based on production, and the amount of snaps on which a quarterback does not experience pressure.

Surprisingly, Cousins’ and Smith’s supporting cast efficiency ratings for 2017 are fairly close. Smith had a supporting cast efficiency rating of +13.79, good for No. 2 at his position. Meanwhile, Cousins, in Washington, came in at No. 5 with a supporting cast efficiency rating of +7.76. Cousins had more passes dropped (35 to 26), but the discrepancy is surprisingly low between the two signal callers.

This isn’t to say that there wasn’t a notable gap between the two quarterbacks’ supporting casts, in terms of consistency and efficiency. But Cousins, for all of the movement around him, had some solid weapons. He had Vernon Davis, who has been a drastically underrated player with the Redskins. He had Chris Thompson for eleven weeks. And he had Jamison Crowder, who, despite his physical limitations, is a very good slot receiver. Additionally, Josh Doctson actually had a fairly decent “rookie” season. At 25 years old, the clock is ticking for Doctson, but he logged over 500 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2017. He’s far from hopeless as the team’s No. 1a receiver. With the added pieces this offseason, the Redskins’ current supporting cast can easily match the effect of last year’s Chiefs cast. It’s a fact.

And finally, we come to protection rate, which is primarily a reflection of a team’s offensive line. The results here come as no surprise. Neither Smith nor Cousins had a perfect line situation, but Smith only encountered pressure on 9.7 percent of his passing snaps, while Cousins, behind T.J. Clemmings, Shawn Lauvao, and Tyler Catalina, experienced pressure on 12.9 percent of his passing snaps. That gap may not seem big at first glance, but Cousins pressure rate was fifth-worst in the league, while Smith’s was eleventh-best. To Cousins’ credit, he made some great throws under pressure, and he had a higher completion percentage under pressure than Smith, but the constant threat of being sacked (and fumbling the football, as Cousins did well) had to be on his mind. Smith might have that same issue, if the line can’t get healthy and stay healthy.

Overall, Kirk Cousins ended the 2017 season with a true passer rating of 101.0, while Smith ended his 2017 campaign with a true passer rating of 113.6, good for the best in the league. This trend continued with the two quarterbacks’ true completion percentages. Cousins came in at 69.3 percent, while Smith was second to only one with 73.3 percent. Cousins was good. But Smith was better.

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