Best and worst-case predictions for every Commanders defensive player in 2024

We’ve already done best-case, worst-case, and realistic-case predictions for the 25 offensive players on the Washington Commanders roster before the start of the 2024 season. Now it’s time to make some predictions about the defense.

Just a brief reminder - even the best and worst-case scenarios are realistic scenarios, and we do not consider injury, which is always the worst case. I feel like the Masters with limited commercial interruption.

Let’s dive right in…

Best and worst-case scenarios for every Commanders defensive player in 2024

Jonathan Allen, Defensive Tackle

Best-Case: Second-team All-Pro, double-digit sacks for the first time in his career.
Worst-Case: Lingering animosity from last season is not completely gone. Rookie Johnny Newton gradually takes more snaps so that by season’s end, he has fewer than 700 defensive snaps.
Realistic-Case: Eight sacks, 12 tackles-for-loss. Pro Bowl alternate.

Dorance Armstrong Jr., Defensive End

Best case: 750 defensive snaps, 12.5 sacks, Pro Bowl alternate.
Worst-case: Fewer defensive snaps than Clelin Ferrell. Winds up on a 'worst free agent signings' piece by Thanksgiving.
Realistic-case: 7.5 sacks. And an additional 7.5 tackles-for-loss. Tackles Deuce Vaughn on a key third-down play against the Dallas Cowboys which helps preserve victory.

Percy Butler, Safety

Best-case: Becomes a valuable big-nickel defensive back who causes at least two fumbles with massive hits against opposing tight ends in a limited role.
Worst-case: Tossed from two games for forcible contact with the helmet. One of those penalties costs the Commanders a game.
Realistic-case: Negligible impact on defense. Force on special teams. 200 snaps, and multiple highlight reel tackles.

Jeremy Chinn, Safety

Best-Case: 120 combined tackles. Combination of 10 sacks and tackles for loss. 1,000 defensive snaps.
Worst-Case: Who remembers Adam Archuletta? Playing primarily on special teams by mid-season.
Realistic Case: Situational player on early downs and third and short. Makes one huge tackle on a fourth down or goal-line play.

Jamin Davis, Linebacker/Edge

Best-Case: Develops into a pass rusher on a par with Ken Harvey and Brian Orakpo. 13.5 sacks. Mind you, Jamin Davis has just seven sacks in his three-year career thus far.
Worst-Case: Cedes linebacking snaps to Mykal Walker and Jordan Magee. Cedes edge snaps to Javontae Jean-Baptiste and Dante Fowler Jr. Is a healthy scratch over the final five games.
Realistic-Case: Several big splash plays - one of which helps seal a victory - but not enough of them to secure his position for 2025. Signs with the Carolina Panthers as a free agent this offseason.

Michael Davis, Cornerback

Best-Case: Four picks, 15 passes defended. Emerges as the team’s No. 1 boundary cornerback.
Worst-Case: Passer rating allowed tops 100. Commanders still have no top-tier boundary corners.
Realistic-Case: A below-average pass rush puts extra pressure on corners. Allows more than 50 receptions with a couple of interceptions.

Clelin Ferrell, Defensive End

Best-Case: 450 defensive snaps, 30 total pressures (sacks, hits, hurries).
Worst-Case: He's replaced as the starter by Week 6.
Realistic-Case: 400 snaps with a Pro Football Focus rating of 65 for pass rush and 60 for run defense.

Emmanuel Forbes Jr., Cornerback

Best-Case: Starting cornerback by season’s end. Five picks and one pick-six. Makes a key break-up on a deep ball to A.J. Brown which preserves the win over the Philadelphia Eagles.
Worst-Case: 2023 redux.
Realistic-Case: Makes his biggest contribution as a punt returner.

Darrick Forrest, Safety

Best-Case: Joe Whitt Jr. decides he needs Quan Martin at cornerback and returns Darrick Forrest to his starting free safety position. Repeats his 2022 production with a PFF rating pushing 70.
Worst-Case: Remains the third safety option for most of the year. Dominique Hampton gradually takes more of his snaps as the season progresses.
Realistic-Case: Performs well as Martin’s backup and occasional injury replacement. Gets 600 defensive snaps as Whitt begins experimenting with Jeremy Chinn and Martin in different roles.

Dante Fowler Jr., Linebacker/Edge

Best-Case: Relives 2019. 750 snaps, 15 sacks, 50 hurries. Makes his first Pro Bowl.
Worst-Case: Continues on the slow downward trend since the 2019 season. Becomes redundant as Jamin Davis thrives in the pass-rushing edge role.
Realistic-Case: Plays mostly on passing downs. Generates 30 total quarterback pressures.

Dominique Hampton, Safety

Best-Case: Dan Quinn has found his new Kam Chancellor. At best, Dominique Hampton won’t log serious snaps or start until the middle of the season, so 50 tackles and two picks would be excellent.
Worst-Case: With Jeremy Chinn, Percy Butler, and Jeremy Reaves possibly slated ahead of him, Hampton finds it hard to get on the field. Remains inactive for most of the season.
Realistic-Case: Only logs a handful of snaps, mostly on special teams, in the first half of the season. Is gradually inserted into the defense in the second half. If Washington remains in playoff contention, he gets fewer than 75 defensive snaps. If they are out of it by December, he gets more like 200.

Noah Igbinoghene, Cornerback

Best-Case: Jeff Okudah. After a very disappointing start, Noah Igbinoghene develops into a serviceable corner, mostly as a backup who is stronger against the run than in coverage.
Worst-Case: Remains Noah Igbinoghene. Negligible bottom-of-the-depth chart reserve who plays almost entirely on special teams.
Realistic-Case: He looked a little more comfortable in coverage this preseason so expect Igbinoghene to get about 100 defensive snaps as a fill-in when starters get nicked up. Will make some plays, but will also get beat a one or two bad moments.

Javontae Jean-Baptiste, Edge

Best-Case: Emerges as the team’s best pass rusher. Forces his way onto the field more as the season progresses. Ends with 7.5 sacks.
Worst-Case: Can’t beat out the veterans. Both Jamin Davis and Dante Fowler Jr. have productive seasons and Jean-Baptiste barely plays until December.
Realistic-Case: He will play, but since he only had 14 total sacks in five years at Notre Dame, two sacks as a rookie seems more likely.

Frankie Luvu, Linebacker

Best-Case: Pro Bowl, Second-Team All-Pro. 135 tackles and six sacks. Hailed as Washington’s best linebacker since London Fletcher.
Worst-Case: I don’t see one. I suppose he could struggle to adapt to a new defensive scheme which would depress his numbers down to 100 tackles and three sacks, Maybe he only gets recognized as the best linebacker the franchise has had since prime Cole Holcomb.
Realistic-Case: Best case minus the All-Pro selection.

Jordan Magee, Linebacker

Best-Case: Recovers from a meniscus injury in time to be a major contributor during the second half of the season. Bobby Wagner becomes his surrogate uncle.
Worst-Case: I don’t usually mention injuries under worst-case because it goes without saying. But Magee enters his first season injured. The worst case is that he simply never gets healthy enough to play this season. The real worst case is Wagner suffering an injury, which may force him onto the field before he is ready.
Realistic-Case: Commanders take it very slow with Magee. Doesn’t play much until after Thanksgiving. Just watches and learns. When he does step onto the field, he is very good. Maybe not Wagner good, but he shows signs of being another Foyesade Oluokun tackling machine.

Quan Martin, Safety

Best-Case: Six picks, 80 tackles, and most importantly, does not surrender any deep touchdowns in the six divisional games. Benjamin St-Juste and Michael Davis have their best years as pros because Quan Martin has the deep end covered.
Worst-Case: Joe Whitt Jr. can’t resist the urge to take advantage of Martin’s outstanding versatility and moves him around the entire defensive secondary. It slows his growth. Still manages two interceptions and 55 tackles.
Realistic-Case: Four picks and 70 tackles, and becomes recognized as the leader of the secondary.

Phidarian Mathis, Defensive Tackle

Best-Case: Milton Williams - 400 snaps, 35 tackles, seven quarterback pressures.
Worst-Case: Phidarian Mathis - 200 snaps, 10 tackles, zero pressures. Is out of the rotation by November.
Realistic-Case: Settles in as fourth interior lineman. Gets his 350-400 snaps but isn’t as productive as the best case. 20 tackles and one sack.

Johnny Newton, Defensive Tackle

Best-Case: Jalen Carter - 500 snaps, 45 tackles, 13 quarterback hurries.
Worst-Case: Just like Jordan Magee, Newton enters the season with some injury concerns. But assuming he’s relatively healthy, his worst case is 25 percent better than Phidarian Mathis’ worst case.
Realistic-Case: I’m betting big on Newton. He may miss some time due to nagging injuries so his totals won’t be quite as high, but he’ll come very close to Carter-level as a rookie.

Tyler Owens, Safety

Best-Case: Special teams monster. Jeremy Reaves, only more explosive. Also carves out a niche in special packages on defense. Could be very effective in short-yardage situations.
Worst-Case: Chris Horton, Year 2. After a very impressive start, the unheralded safety essentially vanished after his first year. Owens could vanish after his impressive preseason, being inactive for the majority of the campaign.
Realistic-Case: Much closer to the best case. Should be very good on special teams and specific defensive packages, but also is a prime candidate for a bad dangerous hit penalty at a key moment.

Daron Payne, Defensive Tackle

Best-Case: Pro Bowl, First Team All-Pro (no more Aaron Donald to compete with), 60 tackles, 20 tackles for loss, and 12 sacks.
Worst-Case: 2023 redux - 50 tackles, 10 tackles for loss, and four sacks.
Realistic-Case: I expect Payne’s numbers to be closer to the worst case, which is still pretty good. Only five sacks but should get around 15 tackles for loss.

Jeremy Reaves, Safety

Best-Case: Pro Bowl as special teamer. Fewer than 50 defensive snaps.
Worst-Case: Rookies Tyler Owens and Dominque Hampton supplant him on both defense and special teams and he is released by mid-season.
Realistic-Case: Owens does supplant him, but Hampton does not and Reaves sticks on the roster all season as special teams captain.

Mike Sainristil, Cornerback

Best-Case: Finishes second to Byron Murphy II for NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Worst-Case: Finishes fourth behind Murphy, Kamari Lassiter, and Terrion Arnold for NFC Defensive Rookie of the Year.
Realistic-Case: Sainristil becomes a leader of the secondary along with Quan Martin. They keep an Amon-Ra St. Brown-style list of all the defensive backs who were drafted ahead of them and keep it posted in a clubhouse called Second-Round Secondary.

Benjamin St-Juste, Cornerback

Best-Case: Trevon Diggs, 2021. Okay, maybe not that spectacular, but the Joe Whitt Jr. magic works to the tune of eight interceptions, 60 tackles, and his first Pro Bowl.
Worst-Case: Benjamin St-Juste up until now. Gives up an opposing passer rating of over 100 and commits two or three penalties throughout the year that lead directly to losses.
Realistic-Case: I think St-Juste was made for a coach like Whitt. He has had just one interception throughout his career. He will have five this year. Will still get beat from time to time, but will balance it with some big game-changing plays.

Bobby Wagner, Linebacker

Best-Case: Leads the league in tackles. 10th Pro Bowl selection. Second team All-Pro.
Worst-Case: Issues in coverage cause him to play fewer than 700 snaps. Beaten by Saquon Barkley on a circle pattern that loses the Eagles game.
Realistic-Case: No All-Pro, but still soars past 100 tackles and gets to the Pro Bowl. Most importantly, teaches Jordan Magee how to be a middle linebacker.

Mykal Walker, linebacker

Best-Case: Kevin Pierre-Louis, 2020. 300 snaps, Steady coverage linebacker on third and medium packages.
Worst-Case: Khaleke Hudson. Makes occasional plays but never really does enough to carve out a role. One and done.
Realistic-Case: Plays mostly on special teams. Serviceable deep depth should something happen to multiple linebackers throughout the year.

More Commanders news and analysis