Veteran defensive lineman Daron Payne has been the subject of intense trade speculation as the deadline looms. The Washington Commanders haven't made any moves, with general manager Adam Peters reportedly waiting to see how things unfold over the next two games before deciding on any action.
However, the recent compensation the Indianapolis Colts received for defensive lineman DeForest Buckner has put Payne's potential compensation under the microscope.
The Colts' fire sale is underway. They moved prolific offensive lineman Quenton Nelson to the Seattle Seahawks. Six years after Indianapolis traded for Buckner, the franchise sent him back to the San Francisco 49ers.
DeForest Buckner trade compensation complicates Commanders' Daron Payne stance
The compensation for a three-time Pro Bowler on an expiring deal? A fourth-round pick in 2027.
Now, Payne is younger and more athletic than Buckner, though he's not as productive. But this is probably the ballpark the Commanders would get for him if they became receptive to offers in the coming weeks.
But is it worth it?
This all comes down to whether Peters wants to pay Payne at the end of the season.
The Commanders opted to stand pat with Payne during the offseason. He was not traded or released, and he didn't get an early extension either. All sides were on board with letting things play out, but it could still legitimately go either way.
Payne's production has been solid enough this season. The big question is whether it's enough for another lucrative deal, especially since he hasn't lived up to his previous $90 million extension.
Extending Payne will not be cheap. The Commanders could use the franchise tag, but that's also a lot. And if Peters decides not to extend him, he will leave for nothing more than a compensatory pick at best.
Commanders face a tricky problem with Daron Payne before the trade deadline
But if they make that decision now, trading him becomes feasible.
After seeing Buckner's eventual price, fans should not expect anything more than a Day 3 selection. Or if they agree to take on most of his remaining money, that could increase to a low-end Day 2 pick.
It's easy for fans to say have a sale and recoup whatever they can, but it's not that simple.
There has to be sufficient interest, and Peters won't want to give his players away. Payne might have underperformed after his Pro Bowl campaign in 2022, but he would still leave a gaping hole on defensive coordinator Daronte Jones' 3-4 front that must be filled.
And trading anyone now would be waving the white flag.
Something the Commanders are just not willing to do until proven otherwise.
Teams will also know the Commanders are vulnerable, desperate to secure a more profitable future if they sell at the deadline. That means they will try to extract value, and Peters is a notoriously tough negotiator.
Nothing should be dismissed, especially if the Commanders cannot win both of their upcoming games before the November 10 cut-off point.
But anyone expecting a king's ransom, or even a second-round pick, for Payne will be out of luck.
Buckner's price all but confirms that.
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