In the aftermath of the Washington Commanders’ narrow win over the New Orleans Saints, quarterback Jayden Daniels achieved two notable milestones. Another reflection of his incredible transition from college to the pros.
The Heisman Trophy winner became just the fourth quarterback in NFL history to pass for at least 3,000 yards and rush for more than 500 yards in his rookie season. And he became the fifth signal-caller to complete better than 80 percent of his passes in at least four games in one season.
That’s not just for rookies. That is amongst every quarterback to ever suit up.
Those are heady accomplishments that speak to how talented and poised Daniels is at such an early age. But there is one disconcerting aspect to the achievements — especially the first one.
The three other quarterbacks to hit 3,000 passing/500 rushing yards as a rookie are Cam Newton, Kyler Murray, and Robert Griffin III. Between them, they served as starters for 18 seasons, with the Oklahoma product still adding to that number.
Between them, they amassed a total of three playoff wins.
This is too small a sample size to draw any definitive conclusions, but the broad inference is clear. To achieve high-level playoff success, teams do not need a quarterback who runs a lot. It may even become a detriment.
That 500-yard rushing threshold sounds great, but how many times has an NFL team won the Super Bowl with a signal caller who topped that number? In the last 25 years, it has happened just once — Russell Wilson in 2013 with the Seattle Seahawks.
On average, dating back to 1999, the quarterback who led his team to the Vince Lombardi Trophy has run for about 120 yards in his Super Bowl season. Even over the past decade, when Patrick Mahomes has helped elevate that number, the average quarterback rushing yards is still below 150.
Commanders offense must find better balance for Jayden Daniels
Daniels’ running is a phenomenal weapon. Even so, the Commanders must develop a more well-rounded offense if they want to scale the heights.
Every Commanders fan still recalls the rise and fall of Griffin. His rookie season in 2012 was spectacular. Had he not gotten injured, he almost certainly would have racked up some playoff wins.
Griffin was handily defeating Wilson’s Seahawks in his very first postseason contest before getting hurt. However, it is not simply a question of increased injury risk that suggests the course Daniels needs to follow to make Washington a championship contender.
The former LSU star must become a better passer. That may seem odd to say given the second elite club he joined — the one with four 80% completion games in a season. Even so, there is a lot of room for improvement.
His three misses on deep shots to Terry McLaurin were the most obvious examples at the Saints, but there were others. There have been others all year.
Daniels had an open Olamide Zaccheaus on a short cross that would have gotten a first down, but he didn’t spot him in time. As outstanding as he has been this year, those are the kinds of reads that will get better over time. And those are the exact kinds of plays that win games in the knockout rounds.
The Cajon High School product ended up taking a sack on that play. This also helps explain why that impressive 80% completion rate may be valued a little too highly.
Drew Brees is one of the names on that 80% list and he had magnificent playoff success throughout his long career. But the other three — Kirk Cousins, Trevor Lawrence, and Dak Prescott — have just four postseason wins in 18 combined seasons.
Commanders must learn mistakes from Robert Griffin III's failure
The Commanders' brain trust needs to learn from the Griffin story. In at least one area, it seems they already have.
Daniels is still running a lot, but it's obvious that his coaches have worked with him to minimize the risk of injury. He finds the sidelines very well. He slides much more effectively than he did early in the season. He is still taking shots, but that’s just part of playing the position. Every quarterback gets hit.
It's not the increased chance of injury created by running that will limit the Commanders’ playoff success. It’s all the bigger plays potentially available had Daniels made better reads and/or better throws.
He is already beyond where anyone had a right to expect him to be at such an early stage. Daniels' processing and throwing are well above average. But if this quarterback and his team want to compete for championships, he needs to get better.
That means several things.
From a roster perspective, it means general manager Adam Peters needs to upgrade his receiving options. He needs targets who can win one-on-one battles and find spots in zones.
Coming into the Saints game, Daniels had already lost one receiver who could do the former in Noah Brown and another who could do both in Austin Ekeler. During the contest, he lost another reliable target — veteran tight end Zach Ertz.
Therefore, one thing that Washington needs to do to make Daniels better is to get youngsters like Luke McCaffrey and Ben Sinnott to play at a higher level. Both remain unknown quantities right now. That has to change at some point.
Another thing they have to do is improve the offensive line. As a rookie left tackle, Brandon Coleman is going through growing pains. He should be fine. The rest of the Commanders' protection is better than it was last year, but they still struggle against aggressive pass-rushing teams.
That solution falls both on the line itself and on the play-calling. Kliff Kingsbury needs to find ways to make opposing defenses pay for crowding the line. Hitting one of those deep shots to McLaurin would have achieved that.
When Griffin was in Washington, he recognized the need to become a better pocket passer to reach his potential. But it never happened. Injuries were a major factor, but it went beyond that.
Griffin and his coach, Mike Shanahan, never built a good working relationship. The dysfunction was fostered by wretched ownership and management. Over time, it seemed as if the quarterback was making decisions on running or throwing that had as much to do with proving a point to his coach as winning a football game.
The coach never seemed all that interested in resolving the friction. It was an ugly situation that turned a promising beginning into a very bad end.
That is not likely to happen with Daniels. He seems to have a maturity well beyond his years. There is new ownership and management. The coaches who bungled the Griffin experiment are a distant memory.
Daniels is not going to stop running. Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are not either. But as they have matured, the Baltimore Ravens and Buffalo Bills quarterbacks are running less as their respective teams have built better-balanced offenses around them.
That’s the model the Commanders need to follow.
There will come a time within the next few years when Daniels takes off and runs on a key third down in the fourth quarter. He will dazzle with his speed and elusiveness to set up a winning score.
If the Commanders are still relying on him to run as he has during his rookie season, that play is going to come in another late-season contest as Washington is fighting for a playoff spot. If he begins running less and gets even more efficient with his reads and throws, the play is going to come in the Super Bowl.