In 2020, Ron Rivera led the team now known as the Washington Commanders on one of the most unlikely playoff runs in NFL history.
At one point, Rivera’s club stood at 2-7. In most years, the playoffs would be a pipe dream at that point. Still, in 2020, the two most talented rosters in the NFC East — the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys — suffered devastating injuries that virtually eliminated them from contention for the division crown.
Washington won the division despite using three different starting quarterbacks in the regular season and a fourth in the playoffs. They won despite having a losing record. They won thanks to strong play by young players and excellent luck.
The following year, it all fell apart. It began the three-year decline that eventually led to Dan Snyder's removal from the club.
Team ownership is not about to change for the Commanders. Even so, there are some surprising and ultimately disturbing similarities between this era and what the franchise has experienced in the past two seasons.
Commanders have regressed considerably, which brings more questions than answers
There are significant differences in management and personnel. As much fun as that 2020 team was, they were nowhere near as good as last year’s edition. Washington had a plus-six point differential for the season in 2020. That virtually defines a mediocre team.
Last year, the Commanders were plus-94, the mark of a good club.
The Rivera team of 2020 was built on its defense, especially Chase Young. The offense was not very good, but the defense ranked near the top of the league in most significant categories.
Dan Quinn’s first season as head coach had a dynamic, top-10 offense, built on the talents of Jayden Daniels. The defense was middle-of-the-pack.
In 2021, Washington’s offense actually improved, albeit minimally. They went from a bad offense to a slightly below-average one. But the defense? It fell off a cliff.
It is still hard to understand how things got so bad so quickly with Rivera’s defense. He was a defensive coach. He had a proven defensive coordinator. Washington had many talented players on this side of the football.
Or, at least, they thought so.
Jump ahead to the present. Washington’s offense has clearly struggled, in large part due to multiple injuries. They have been without Daniels, Terry McLaurin, and several others.
But the offense has not been the major culprit in this year’s collapse. The defense — just like the unit in 2021 — has imploded.
Once again, a successful, defensive-minded head coach and a proven coordinator have seemed powerless to stop the freefall. Statistically, this year’s defense is worse across the board than its 2021 counterpart and is challenging the 2023 unit, one of the worst in franchise history.
And though everyone has pet theories, no one is entirely sure why it has happened.
The multiple injuries at defensive end have certainly hurt. Losing Dorance Armstrong Jr. has been especially devastating. A couple of members of the secondary have also been lost. In all, five opening day starters are now missing.
But injuries happen, and supposedly, Washington had a deep enough roster to withstand the losses.
The free agents who departed from last year’s squad — Jeremy Chinn, Dante Fowler Jr., Benjamin St-Juste — I don’t recall much hand-wringing when they signed elsewhere. Will Harris, Von Miller, and Trey Amos actually looked like an upgrade.
Some older players — Miller and Bobby Wagner — may have slowed down. But the linebacker, despite his limitations in coverage, remains an excellent player.
Marshon Lattimore appears to be a gamble that did not pay off. Those things are unfortunate, but as with injuries, they are the cost of doing business.
The bigger issue concerns the young players who were supposed to be the core of the rebuilt roster. Leaving Daniels aside, many of the young players — either draft picks or free agent acquisitions — have regressed to the point this year where their future value has to be called into question.
Can Frankie Luvu, Mike Sainristil, and Quan Martin recapture the exceptional quality they had in 2024? This isn’t merely a question of defense. Fans are asking the same questions of offensive lineman Brandon Coleman.
Will Johnny Newton and Ben Sinnott, two high draft picks from 2024, ever live up to their early hype?
These puzzles have far-reaching implications. They go beyond the players in question.
Coleman and Sainristil looked like future stars in 2024. They have both regressed. What exactly does that signal — if anything — for this year’s crop of rookies?
Josh Conerly Jr., Trey Amos, and Jacory Croskey-Merritt have each looked very promising in flashes this season. None of them seems to be playing better today than they were in Week 1.
Is Washington overvaluing its own players? Receiver Jaylin Lane has been fine in his rookie year, but a few weeks ago, he was thoroughly outclassed by Tory Horton, a receiver drafted a round after by the Seattle Seahawks.
Or are the coaches failing to get the most out of the talented young players? These are the same questions we were all asking back in 2021, without any good answers. And the situation continued to get worse.
The Commanders of 2025 have a much more competent management structure than they had in 2021. They have Daniels, who, despite a disappointing second year, remains a considerable talent. So in several vital regards, things do look much better.
But last week's beatdown by the Detroit Lions brought a new wrinkle and with it, new questions.
If team leader Daron Payne and high-priced free agent Javon Kinlaw are spinning out of control and hurting the team in the process, should we begin wondering whether Quinn — the miracle worker of 2024 — has lost his team?
This is all a little too close to 2021 for comfort.