How Commanders having NFL’s easiest schedule in 2022 is misleading

The Washington Commanders‘ 2021 schedule was an absolute gauntlet.

While that was always expected after they hoisted the NFC East crown the season prior, having to lock horns with elite quarterbacks such as Aaron Rodgers, Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen, Tom Brady and Justin Herbert is just cruel.

You’ve probably heard it 1,000 times by now, but Washington did extremely well to finish with seven wins in spite of their circumstances.

Between facing an unrelenting schedule, losing their QB less than a half into the season, the COVID outbreak and a litany of injuries to key players, a lot of teams would’ve capitulated trying to navigate that much adversity.

While the Commanders can’t control the latter three narratives, the football gods are looking after them in regard to their 2022 schedule.

According to analytics expert and NFL Twitter superstar Warren Sharp, the Commanders are expected to have the league’s easiest schedule. Sharp’s analytic-driven formula is based on projected win totals.

The Commanders will have the NFL’s easiest schedule in 2022.

Any analytics haters should consider that Sharp’s model was deadly accurate last campaign. So much so that his prediction of the top eight teams with the hardest schedule was correct with one exception: the Kansas City Chiefs.

The other seven (Commanders, Giants, Cardinals, Raiders, Texans, Steelers, Lions) all finished within the top eight. If you can believe, it, Sharp was just as on target with the league’s easiest strength of schedule, too.

Of the seven teams with the lightest slate, Sharp correctly projected six of them before the season, including the Cowboys, Eagles, Dolphins, Bills, Buccaneers and Broncos. The Bengals were the only team he missed out on.

Long story short, Sharp’s analysis is typically spot on. For the Commanders, that’s both good and bad news. One one hand, their expected “easiest” schedule should position them to improve upon their seven-win total in 2021. The bad news? Philly and Dallas aren’t far behind in the “easiest” schedule rankings.

According to Sharp, the Eagles are No. 3 and the Cowboys are No. 6. The Giants check in at No. 8, but new general manager Joe Schoen needs at least one season’s worth of a rebuild to undo the mess left behind by Dave Gettleman.

Getting back to the Eagles and Cowboys — the Commanders foremost challengers for the NFC East title — it’s pretty scary to think they’re that high. Of course, Washington finished a combined 0-4 against their non-Giants rivals in 2021.

For anyone questioning why Dallas’ schedule is so easy after they won the division last campaign, look no further than the fact that the NFC East will face off against the AFC South and NFC North in 2022. Between the Jaguars, Texans and Lions, you’re talking about teams that combined to win 10 games last year. The Bears also took a major step backwards this offseason.

This isn’t all to say Commanders fans shouldn’t be thrilled they rank No. 1, but context matters and the Eagles and Cowboys — two teams they struggled against in 2021 — both falling inside the top six is a little concerning.

Make a toast, but don’t get misled. That’s all we’re saying.