Washington Football Team: 2021 season has been a colossal failure

2. Defensive Regression

Analytics told everyone that for as much of an unexpected jump Washington had in 2020 on defense, regression should be expected. Nobody accounted for this much regression though.

Washington ranks bottom five in both counting and advanced analytics. They rank 27th in the Football Outsiders DVOA metric. They were third last year. Specifically, against the pass, Washington struggles.

They are 27th in passing defensive DVOA. 8th in rushing. The secondary, specifically the additions of William Jackson III and Bobby McCain, have underwhelmed.

To Washington’s credit, they have improved on defense in the last few weeks. Sans a few big–albeit game-changing!— big plays given up against the Saints, they have steadily improved since the Falcons game.

In fact, the defense gave the offense chance after chance to beat both the Broncos and Packers. The Chiefs too until they collapsed in the fourth quarter.

Here is the huge reason the defensive regression has made this season a failure: This season was intended to be won with elite defensive play and an average offense.

That is the way this Washington roster is constructed. An elite defensive unit is supposed to carry an offense with a few kinks in its system.

But 2021 has proven that this is a futile, unsustainable path to success. Year-over-year success on defense is rare and uncommon. It is uncommon to see year-to-year success with how slanted the rules are towards the offense and how innovative offenses are to be sustainably great or elite on defense.

So Washington’s master plan has therefore blown up in its face. They will be forced to readjust now; hopefully, they readjust properly.