Redskins at Eagles and Beating the Book
By Chris West
Dec 2, 2015; Washington, DC, USA; Washington Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins (8) throws the ball against the Buffalo Bills during the first half at Charles E. Smith Center. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
The Washington Redskins have a chance to win the NFC East today with a victory over the Eagles in Philadelphia. The Redskins have controlled their own destiny for weeks and have won three of their last four games with their only hiccup a home loss to the Cowboys on a Monday night. That loss to Dallas made this match-up versus the Eagles the most important game of the season for the Redskins.
The Redskins passing game has thrived lately with a willingness to attack down the field and throw more on first down. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has been excellent in victories over the Bills and Bears with his accuracy and confidence soaring. He will not only earn a division title for the Redskins with a win in Philadelphia but also a fat new multi-year contract for himself.
The Eagles lost last week versus the Arizona Cardinals, 40-17. Prior to that, they had won two in a row including a victory at New England due to an opportunistic defense and big plays on special teams. Their pass defense has been weak however and they suffered injuries to their starting cornerbacks, Byron Maxwell and Eric Rowe, last week although Rowe is expected to play. Former Redskin EJ Biggers may replace Maxwell.
Philadelphia’s offense has sputtered often with a lackluster run game and an inconsistent passing attack. They have not had a running back take the lead as Demarco Murray seems to have taken a back seat to both Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. Without an effective running game, the Eagles will have a tough time moving the ball consistently against an improving Redskins defense.
The Eagles are favored by three points due to the game being held in Philadelphia. Those three points are a significant advantage for bettors if they take Washington. I like the Redskins to win the game in my Best Bet of the Week.
Best Bet of the Week
Redskins +3 over the Eagles
The Pittsburgh Steelers are in a must win position as they travel to Baltimore to play the Ravens. They are in a three way tie for the two wild card spots in the AFC but lose out on tiebreakers to both Kansas City and New York. In Baltimore, they face a team coming off blowout losses at home to Seattle and Kansas City.
The Steelers offense has been a scoring juggernaut with a healthy Ben Roethlisberger at quarterback. They have scored 30 or more points in six consecutive games and face a depleted Raven defense that will have a tough time matching up with Antonio Brown and the Steelers receivers. The Steelers have won five of their last six games with their only loss coming in Seattle.
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The Ravens offense has had trouble putting up points and may start Ryan Mallett at quarterback as they try to find a solution to their drought. Except for a thrilling come from behind victory in Cleveland on a Monday night, the Ravens have not scored more than 20 points since before their bye in week nine. Even that game featured two special teams touchdowns as the offense was only responsible for 20 of their 33 points.
The Steelers and Ravens usually play close hard fought games in their tough divisional match-ups but this game will be a mis-match. The Steelers under-rated defense will likely hold the Ravens to 20 points or less as their offense continues their streak of 30 point or more scoring outputs. With the point spread at Steelers -9.5, it should be an easy cover for Pittsburgh.
Steelers-9.5 over the Ravens
The Cleveland Browns have lost eight of their last nine games with their only win coming at home two weeks ago versus the San Francisco 49ers. Six of their last seven losses have been by 14 points or more with the only exception their 33-27 last second loss to Baltimore. Now they have their second straight road game and face the Kansas City Chiefs who have won eight consecutive games by an average margin of 17.5 points.
With the Chiefs in the three way tie for two wild card spots, they won’t suffer any let downs versus the Browns. Kansas City’s last two home games have been by seven over the Chargers and eight over the Bills however, so the ten point spread may give some bettors a reason to pause. The Browns though are a very low point and I can’t see them putting up much of a game versus the Chiefs this week so lay the ten points.
Chiefs -10 over the Browns
The New England Patriots need a win to maintain home field edge in the playoffs. The New York Jets need to win in order to keep pace with the Chiefs and Steelers for a wild card spot. The Jets and Patriots usually play close games as their four match-ups in 2013 and 2014 were all decided by less than three points.
There is a different feel to this rivalry now that Rex Ryan has moved on to coach the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots are getting healthier along their offensive line and tight end Rob Gronkowski is back in the lineup. This game is the type of game where the Patriots typically play their best. With the spread currently at three points, take the Patriots to win and cover in New York.
Patriots-3 over the Jets
The Carolina Panthers have little to play for this week as they will have a bye for the first round of the playoffs and are likely to have home field edge throughout the playoffs. They are coming off of a tumultuous game versus the New York Giants which may have them out of focus this week. Their last two road games were also slim three point wins.
The Panthers beat the Atlanta Falcons two weeks ago, 38-0. Now they have to play the Falcons again and this time in Atlanta which is the second straight road game for the Panthers. Most factors point to an upset possibly for the Falcons.
The Panthers have been a focused team throughout the 2015 season. They are attempting to become the second team to ever have a 16-0 regular season record. They face a Falcons team that just snapped a six game losing streak. Despite all of the reasons to pick against the Panthers, I expect them to win easily.
Panthers-6.5 over the Falcons
I also like the Bills, Dolphins and Minnesota to varying degrees. Last week, the Cardinals win over the Eagles pushed my Best Bet record to 10-6. I added the Broncos to my Top Bets last week when the point spread went to +7.5 and held on for the half point win. My only loss in Top Bets was the Panthers as they allowed the Giants to come back from a 35-7 deficit and beat the spread by a single point.
College Best Bets are 9-2-1 or 82%
With my Top Bets going 3-1, my season record is now 35-28-1 and my overall mark is 83-51-4. My college bowl picks went 4-1 this week and I won all three half-time bets to give me a 9-3-1 record overall and San Diego State’s 42-7 win over Cincinnati makes me 2-0 on College Bowl game Best Bets. College Top Bets went 3-0 to push my record to 4-1-1 on Top Bets.
When added to my college regular season record, my College Best Bets are 9-2-1 or 82% and College Top Bets are 29-12-2 or 71%. My overall college record would be 136-85-4 or 61%. Here are Saturday’s bowl game picks: Moderate plays on Marshall-5 and Washington State-2.5. Small plays on Southern Mississippi+9.5, Indiana-3 and Tulsa +14 with a lean only for now on UCLA-6.5.
To continue getting my College Bowl game picks and updates on the NFL games, please follow me on twitter @westcoast_skins. Good luck this week!