Pro Football Prospectus 2007
By daveskins
For any real football fan, Christmas really does come in July with the release of Pro Football Prospectus from the guys at footballoutsiders.com. Mine arrived yesterday and I immediately turned to the Redskins section and have been working my way around it ever since.
For those unfamiliar with the book, it is roughly the size of a phone book and ever single page is chock full of incredible insights. The gang lead by Aaron Schatz is on a mission to instill some statistical rigor to the game in an attempt to understand it better. I know. Some of you just made fake snoring noises, but believe me when I say that the book will blow your hair back and you’ll never look at the game the same way. And it’s written with a wit and charm that makes the whole thing entertaining.
I couldn’t possibly cover all of the points in the book, but I’d like to share some highlights. Trust me when I say that the statements I’m sharing are backed up by some serious thinking, data, and analysis.
1) There is an excellent article in the book about what makes a Hall of Fame receiver. Unfortunately, they don’t give Art Monk the greatest chances of getting elected. And in general, they make some decent cases for why. While I still tend to disagree with them, it is nice to see an argument made on the basis of something beyond Monk being a tad boring.
2) One of my favorite assertions the book makes (and backs up) is a reversal of an old NFL saw: “You run when you win, not win when you run.” They produce data which backs up the assertion that since the 80’s (and before the 70’s with the 70’s being an interesting aberration) the teams that put up dominant running stats have done so after they have already taken the lead with the passing game (or a balanced attack). This means the whole “running and defense wins championships” is at best half right.
3) Another entertaining article was on who exactly was the worst QB to ever win a Super Bowl. I won’t tell you because I want you to buy the book from these guys, but his name rhymes with Tent Bilfer.
4) Good news for the Redskins is that they have data that shows teams that have good success on 1st and 2nd down but are poor on 3rd down in one season (like we were last year) tend to improve significantly the following season. Interestingly, teams that are good on 3rd down but poor on first and second tend to get worse. The book predicts the Skins defense will go back to being very good and we should be playoff contenders again.
5) One of the downsides for Redskins fans can actually be found in the Buffalo Bills section where an article is done on missed tackles. Apparently while watching game film of the Bills games last year, Schatz noticed that London Fletcher’s enormous tackle numbers form last year were inflated by jumping on piles at the end of the plays. Apparently it was so bad he started referring to this throughout the book as “Fletchers.”
6) Back to good news, the book includes a projection tool for young QBs that predicts Campbell will be very good this year and continue on to have a fabulous career. In general, I think the book is worth buying just for this section as it has some very interesting things to say about predicting young QB success even before they are drafted.
7) For fantasy players, the fantasy section is better than any magazine you will ever buy. Because it is a book, some of the information is a bit behind, but for $20 you can download their player projections which are updated constantly up to the draft. They are also customizable to your league’s scoring system. For fantasy players it will be the best $20 you’ll ever spend.
There’s plenty more in the book. Like I said, it is the size of a small telephone book. Stick it on the back of your toilet and you might finish it by the Super Bowl. Buy this book, and comment below on some parts to look out for. Our readers will appreciate it.
-DW