Sharp money heavily favoring one side on Commanders' 2023 win total

Is there value on the Washington Commanders' win total in the 2023 season?
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17).
Washington Commanders wide receiver Terry McLaurin (17). / Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

Vegas may not be high on the Washington Commanders in the win total market, but that hasn’t stopped sharp bettors from wagering on them. 

The Commanders win total of 6.5 has the most money (78 percent) on the OVER at BetMGM.

Washington finished with an 8-8-1 record in the 2022 season, but it failed to make the playoffs with three other NFC East teams advancing. 

Washington has the lowest win total projection in the NFC East in 2023: The Commanders find themselves projected to finish in last in the NFC East again, but does that leave some value on them in the betting market? 

Washington Commanders win total prediction

There are a few reasons why Commanders fans, and NFL bettors should consider the OVER on Washington’s win total – outside of the fact that sharp money is coming in on Washington. 

Washington’s history under Ron Rivera: In the three seasons with Ron Rivera as the Commanders head coach, Washington has won at least seven games in each of them. 

  • In fact, Washington has just one season since 2015 (the 2019 season) where it finished with fewer than 6.5 wins. 

Washington plays a last-place schedule: Even though the Commanders went 8-8-1 in the 2022 season, they finished in last place in the NFC East. That gives them a softer schedule in 2023 than they had last season. Here are just a handful of their “easier” games:

  • Week 1 vs. Arizona
  • Week 2 @ Denver
  • Week 5 vs. Chicago
  • Week 6 @ Atlanta
  • Week 9 @ New England
  • Week 15 @ Los Angeles Rams

Out of those teams, only the Denver Broncos have a win total projection above 7.5 in the 2023 season. 

Jacoby Brissett is a solid safety option: Either veteran Jacoby Brissett or youngster Sam Howell is going to be the team’s starting quarterback in 2023, and Brissett gives the Commanders a solid floor. 

In his last full season as a starter, Brissett went 7-8 in 15 games with the Indianapolis Colts. In the last two seasons with Miami and Cleveland, he’s compiled a 6-10 record in 16 starts. He should have the team in the conversation for seven wins if he earns the job.

Odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.