One key statistic that will define Commanders QB Sam Howell in 2023

What should Commanders expect from Sam Howell in 2023?

So what should we look for from Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell in 2023? I want two things.

I want him to generate touchdowns – be it through the air, or setting up short Brian Robinson Jr. runs. And I want a very low sack percentage. 6.0 or below.

That would put him in the top half of the league in a normal year. As a point of reference, Taylor Heinicke was a mediocre 6.8 last year and Carson Wentz was a very poor 8.6.

The really good quarterbacks with high sack percentages tend to be the best runners – players like Hurts and Lamar Jackson. They tend to hold the ball longer while scrambling around and do get sacked more as a result. They also make more chunk plays downfield.

Not getting sacked obviously aids an offense, but it also says something about how well the quarterback dissects the entire defense – both pass rush and coverage. Quarterbacks who don’t get brought down tend to see the game at a slower speed. That may be an innate talent. It may be the function of superb preparation. Either way, it is a very encouraging sign for a young player.

There is a caveat here, and this is why I said that Howell also has to produce touchdowns. A quarterback can avoid sacks by growing panicky and flinging the ball too early to avoid the sack. Quarterbacks can never be afraid of either throwing an interception or taking a sack.

Contrary to the way many people see the position, I would rather he risk the interception than take the sack. Because when he risks a takeaway, good things can happen, especially in the era of defensive pass interference. There cannot be DPI if you do not throw the ball.

Brett Favre is a classic example of this. He threw a ton of picks but had more touchdowns. One of the reasons he was able to throw so many scores is that he did not take a lot of sacks. His career sack percentage is 4.9, which puts him in the top 20 all-time.