The Commanders were sellers at the trade deadline, but the team is still in a position to grab a win on the road against a middling New England Patriots squad.
How should we attack this game from a player prop perspective with Sam Howell continuing to chuck the ball all over the field for the Commanders offense? I have you covered with a pair of Commanders player prop as well as a Patriots wide receiver that may be in line to go over his receiving yard number.
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Best Prop Bets for Commanders vs. Patriots
- Sam Howell OVER 248.5 Passing Yards
- Logan Thomas OVER 33.5 Passing Yards
- Demario Douglas OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards
Sam Howell OVER 248.5 Passing Yards
Howell has cleared this mark in four of his last five games, including passing for 397 yards against the Eagles last week. Now, he draws a Patriots defense that is vulnerable agains tthe pass, ranking 25th in EPA/Dropback this season.
The Commanders have been quick to abandon the run all season long and put the ball in Howell's hands; he is second pass attempts and in sixth in passing yards on the year. This number is shooting for a below average output, but against a poor Patriots secondary, I'll go over.
Logan Thomas OVER 33.5 Passing Yards
Thomas has cleared this number in five of seven games that he has played this season, and as mentioned above, is in line for a nice outing against a Patriots defense that has struggled against the pass all season.
If there's a strong point to the Patriots secondary, though, it's that it shuts down opposing No. 1 wide receivers. New England has the best DVOA mark against No. 1 targets this season, but again, are poor against the pass across the board. That means that other targets pick up the slack and Howell has shown great chemistry with his tight end.
Demario Douglas OVER 42.5 Receiving Yards
We can't only bet on the Commanders, so let's take a look at "Pop" Douglas, who should step into a feature role with DaVante Parker set to miss this one due to a concussion.
Douglas has produced already in a limited sample this season, hauling in 19 catches on 30 targets for nearly 12 yards a grab. Even though he hasn't had a feature role, he has cleared this mark in three games and with the injuries to the wide receiver room, I expect a bigger target share for him.
Meanwhile, the Commanders sold off pass rushers Montez Sweat and Chase Young, which means Mac Jones should have plenty of time to operate in a clean pocket, giving him opportunities to find Douglas down field.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.
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