Washington is riding a three-game losing streak headed into Week 6, but Atlanta would be too if not for a last-minute game-winning drive against Houston on Sunday.
Yet the Commanders are listed as 2.5-point underdogs (+118 moneyline odds) at the Falcons this week.
Let’s figure out if this is a good spot to back Washington to pull off a slight upset.
Commanders vs. Falcons Week 6 Opening Odds
The reason that Atlanta is a slight favorite probably has a lot to do with home-field advantage, but why not take advantage of the opportunity?
Washington has played some of its best football on the road this season, including a wild 35-33 comeback win over Denver and a narrow 34-31 overtime loss to Philadelphia.
Though Atlanta has played well at home (3-1 home record), it hasn’t done as well against the spread (ATS).
The Falcons are just 1-4 ATS this season and two of their wins have come by two points or less.
Washington, on the other hand, is coming off a tough loss to Chicago and is just 2-3 ATS themselves.
If you’re not comfortable backing Washington on the spread, you could consider betting on over 42 total points. The Commanders have surrendered 33+ points in four straight games and have allowed 133.6 rushing yards per game (23rd in NFL).
The Commanders clearly aren’t afraid to get aggressive chasing points either, evidenced by Sam Howell attempting 51 (!!) passes against the Bears.
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