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Best NFL Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Commanders in Week 13

Breaking down our three favorite player prop bets for Sunday's Week 13 matchup between the Miami Dolphins and the Washington Commanders.

By Jovan Alford

Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) in action
Nov 23, 2023; Arlington, Texas, USA; Washington Commanders quarterback Sam Howell (14) in action / Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports
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The Washington Commanders will try to snap their three-game losing streak and slow down the high-powered Miami Dolphins on Sunday at FedEx Field. Washington got hammered on Thanksgiving by the Dallas Cowboys.

It was a horrible performance on both sides of the ball and not what you want to see with the Dolphins on the horizon. Even though the Commanders are 9.5-point underdogs, I found two player props that bettors should consider and a Dolphins prop that involves one of their star receivers.

If you want to see where I found these player props, check out DraftKings Sportsbook, where new users will receive $150 in bonus bets and no-sweat game parlays when they bet $5.

Best NFL Prop Bets for Dolphins vs. Commanders in Week 13

  • Jaylen Waddle OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115)
  • Logan Thomas OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)
  • Sam Howell OVER 13.5 rushing yards (-120)

Jaylen Waddle OVER 68.5 receiving yards (-115)

The former Alabama Crimson Tide standout was phenomenal against the Jets on Black Friday, posting eight receptions (eight targets) for 114 yards. It was the second time Waddle went over the century mark this season.

He will try to carry that momentum into Sunday’s game against the Commanders, who have the third-worst pass defense (264.6 passing yards per game) and allow the most receiving yards to WRs this season. 

Waddle has only gone OVER 68.5 receiving yards in four out of 10 games this season, which isn’t a great ratio. Additionally, the Commanders allow 44.7 receiving yards per game to WR2s despite being ranked 24th in DVOA-WR2, per ftnfantasy.com. If this was a different WR2, not named Waddle, I would take the UNDER. However, with Washington having to pay special attention to Tyreek Hill, I like Waddle’s chances to hit the OVER.

Logan Thomas OVER 34.5 receiving yards (-115)

For the Commanders to keep pace with the high-flying Dolphins’ offense, they will need massive contributions from everyone, including veteran tight end Logan Thomas.

Thomas had a quiet game last week against the Cowboys, recording two receptions (four targets) for 15 yards. However, the veteran tight end should be due for a bounce-back game against the Dolphins.

This season, Miami’s defense is ranked 26th in DVOA-TE while allowing 53.6 receiving yards per game to the position, according to ftnfantasy.com. Thomas has gone OVER 34.5 yards in seven out of 11 games this season. Lastly, the 32-year-old tight end has averaged six receptions and 55.5 receiving yards per game at home this season. 

Sam Howell OVER 13.5 rushing yards (-120)

The Dolphins allow the third-fewest rushing yards to quarterbacks this season, but with Howell playing behind a patchwork offensive line, he might be running a lot on Sunday. Miami’s defense is ranked third in sacks (38) and QB pressures (113).

Meanwhile, Howell has been sacked 55 times (league-high), including eight sacks in his last two games. Therefore, the second-year quarterback’s best bet to limit those sack opportunities is to get out of the pocket. Howell has gone OVER 13.5 rushing yards in seven out of 12 games and had two other games with 13 years. It isn’t a glamorous play, but it’s a bet that could work out in our favor.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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