Grading Jayden Daniels at the bye week: Comparing rookie QB to a higher standard

Fears of Jayden Daniels hitting a rookie wall have been put to rest. That’s what a highly efficient outing against the Tennessee Titans heading into the Washington Commanders’ bye week has done for the Heisman Trophy winner.

After three subpar games, Daniels responded by completing more than 80 percent of his throws and accounting for four touchdowns. With four games remaining, Washington’s signal-caller seems to have regained his firm grasp on the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year award, fending off a second-half charge from fellow signal-caller Bo Nix and a dark horse candidate in Las Vegas Raiders tight end Brock Bowers.

The simple way to grade Daniels’ performance at the three-quarter mark of his rookie season is to stamp an A on his report card and be done with it. Maybe an A+, if you believe in that sort of thing.

This does not mean there is no room for improvement. Besides, given his transformative play thus far, Daniels is not merely being judged against the current crop of rookies. He is now solidly in the conversation for the greatest rookie quarterback of all time.

Commanders QB Jayden Daniels is on a historic path to greatness

Let’s take a quick look at how he stacks up against some of the best this season and in the recent past.

The former LSU star is completing just under 70 percent of his passes. That has him in fourth place in the league, trailing Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, and Baker Mayfield. Amongst other rookies this year, only Drake Maye is within shouting distance of Daniels’ numbers, coming in nine spots behind at just over 67%.

In virtually every other passing statistic, Daniels hovers just at the edge of the league's top 10. None of those other passing numbers are eye-opening, but that can belie the true beauty of his game.

Daniels does everything well. There is no gap - no hole that needs to be filled. He is good across the board. He takes shots downfield. He is getting better at checking down or throwing the ball away. He moves in the pocket to buy time. He is not careless. Until his recent slight downturn, he has rarely thrown interceptions.

C.J. Stroud had arguably the greatest year ever by a rookie quarterback in 2023. Daniels has him beat in completion percentage, but the Houston Texans signal-caller has a slight edge in almost every other meaningful passing statistic.

Projecting the remainder of Daniels' rookie season, Stroud will have thrown for more yards and more touchdowns, while achieving a higher yards-per-attempt and a lower interception rate. He will also have taken fewer sacks.

The only rookie season that can stand up to Stroud’s in recent years is that of Washington’s own Robert Griffin III in 2012.

Like Stroud, RGIII had a worse completion percentage but was slightly better in most other categories. Daniels, however, is a more dangerous deep passer. Griffin was dynamite on short and intermediate routes but not as accurate further downfield.

Daniels' current passer rating of 99.4 places him at 11th in the league. That is quite good for a rookie. It is significantly better than fellow first-year signal callers Nix, Maye, and Caleb Williams, all of whom fall below the league average. It is a little bit behind the numbers posted by both Stroud and Griffin in their rookie seasons.

So far, we have only talked about one part of Daniels' game - passing the ball. If you take into account his running, he quite literally blows past almost all his rookie competitors.

Jayden Daniels has the tools and work ethic to thrive long-term

The newer ESPN-created QBR statistic considers rushing when evaluating quarterback play. Daniels’ mark is significantly better than Stroud’s (who does not run often) and slightly ahead of Griffin, who was among the most dynamic running quarterbacks anyone had ever seen.

What makes Daniels' running so effective is how efficient he is. The dual-threat weapon is just below the league-wide average in touchdown throws, but he has run for six scores this season, trailing only Jalen Hurts and Josh Allen.

Two-time NFL MVP Lamar Jackson, arguably the most dangerous running quarterback in the league, is the only one with more rushing yards. Daniels has run for more touchdowns, and a higher percentage of his runs result in first downs. That is rare company indeed for a rookie.

When you take into account his running, Daniels is posting as good a rookie year as any quarterback we have seen this century.

That still doesn’t consider what may be Daniels' greatest attribute - his character.

Daniels entered the league with more experience than most of his fellow rookies and it shows. The only other signal-caller with comparable experience is Nix, which should suggest something to general managers when they evaluate prospects.

He has already demonstrated a work ethic and leadership skills that bode well for the future. Daniels has responded to adversity. The shining example of that came in the Chicago Bears game when he never panicked and engineered a miracle finish. But he has shown a similar positive attitude from the moment he got into the building.

Daniels takes a few too many sacks. He doesn’t always locate open receivers. His processing speed is above average, but it could get better. And it will, because of the character issues mentioned above.

The Commanders sit at 8-5 and are in prime position to make the playoffs this year. At this point in 2023, they were 4-9 and playing out the final pages of a dismal chapter in franchise history. Daniels is not solely responsible for the turnaround. But he is out front, leading the charge.

• Jayden Daniels' grade at the 2024 bye week: A

I’ll withhold the “plus” for now and just give him an A. But I’m a tough grader. I would not push back on anyone who feels he has earned an A+ already.

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