The Washington Commanders are a prime candidate to be one of the most improved teams in the 2026 season, for two obvious reasons. Their roster is much better on paper than it was in 2025, and they can't possibly have the same comical injury luck they did last year.
Jayden Daniels played in only seven games. Terry McLaurin played in 10. Dorance Armstrong Jr., Trey Amos, Austin Ekeler, Zach Ertz, and plenty more were all lost for the season at various points. Add in a much tougher schedule, and that's how a team goes from making the NFC Championship to registering only five wins.
Now, the Commanders are reloaded with a significantly younger roster and new coordinators on both sides of the ball. But is it enough to make a push to return to the playoffs?
One advanced model says to pump the brakes.
Projection models still have the Commanders closer to the back of the pack than the front
Austin Mock of The Athletic's advanced projection model ranks the Commanders 22nd out of 32 NFL teams for the 2026 season, based purely on the expected strength of their roster. Here is what the writer had to say.
"I was low on the Commanders heading into last season, and I'm low on them again this year. My model is not a fan of their wide receivers room, and the offensive line grades out as average. But, as has been the case for some time now, my real concerns reside with Washington's defense. I don't know what there is to like about this group."
It's always easy to dismiss these types of projections as "whatever, nerds." But the "nerds" warned us about the Commanders last year.
They told us Washington's 2024 season was tremendously unsustainable in terms of close games and injury luck. As it turned out, the team was even worse than feared.
It's easy to look through the lens of your favorite team and claim every move they make will be for the better, but fans of 32 teams are currently doing that. The reality is that aside from No. 7 overall pick Sonny Styles and edge rusher Odafe Oweh, Washington didn't make any major splashes. Many of the new pieces are expected to fill glaring holes, but head coach Dan Quinn's squad still has to prove they can move the needle.
There is a world in which none of Adam Peters' signings amount to anything more than role players, and Washington's success depends on whether Daniels can put on his Superman cape again. Commanders fans have plenty of reasons to hope for the best, but if 2026 is another losing campaign, it's not as if we weren't warned.
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