Last week, we noted that Jayden Daniels played Superman yet again to lead the Washington Commanders past the Philadelphia Eagles. I suppose it would be a little too easy this week to simply say “ditto.”
To be clear, the biggest story in most Commanders’ games this season is the rookie quarterback. But now that Dan Quinn’s squad has locked up a playoff spot, let’s focus on the biggest problem currently plaguing the team.
If they don’t get this problem fixed before the Wild Card playoff game, their first postseason since 2020 will be very short.
That problem is not the defense’s inability to stop the run, which was on full display in the first half against the Atlanta Falcons. Nor is it the sudden rash of penalties that have hurt both sides of the ball. It is not the dwindling number of offensive linemen, wide receivers, and defensive backs — though all of those things could be crucial down the road.
The fact is, the astonishingly resilient Commanders figured out ways to overcome all those challenges.
The run defense clamped down. The penalties didn’t exactly vanish, but at least they slowed down. Players like Olamide Zaccheaus, Michael Deiter, and Quan Martin stepped up in a big way to pick up the slack for missing teammates.
Commanders must find ways to build momentum on the ground
Those problems remain, but they are not the biggest ones Washington currently faces.
The biggest right now is the offense’s inability to run the ball consistently. To be a little more specific, the running backs cannot gain consistent yards.
In terms of raw numbers, Washington’s running attack looks great. The Commanders churned out over 200 yards on the ground against the Falcons. They posted an outstanding 6.0 yards per carry and dominated the time-of-possession battle. With those numbers, how could the ground game be a problem?
It’s because, throughout most of the second half of the season, Washington’s running game has been almost exclusively dependent on Daniels. That cannot continue when the postseason arrives.
Consider these numbers from five games leading into the Falcons’ contest. I am excluding the win over the Tennessee Titans. That was an admittedly outstanding performance by the entire Commanders’ run-game personnel. But in the five other games dating back to November 10, Washington running backs have carried the ball 96 times for 290 yards. That works out to an average of 3.0 yards per carry.
The Commanders’ overall rushing numbers don’t look so bad because, in those games, Daniels has run 27 times for 243 yards — an average of 9.0 yards per carry.
Daniels’ numbers are outstanding. He broke Robert Griffin III’s record for most rushing yards by a quarterback in his rookie season on the primetime stage. But it will not be sustainable come playoff time. Washington desperately needs to find the balanced running attack it featured in the first half of the season.
Washington’s running backs are not to blame for this problem. Brian Robinson Jr., Jeremy McNichols. Chris Rodriguez Jr., and Austin Ekeler before his concussion, have made tough runs all year long. The problem in the second half of the season is that they are constantly getting hit in the backfield before they even have a chance to find a hole.
Robinson often has to break multiple tackles to simply pick up two or three yards. Rodriguez was hit in the backfield on his touchdown run but was able to power through the attempted tackle.
The next time Washington was down near the goal line against the Falcons, with a chance to put the game on ice, a straight dive by Robinson was blown up behind the line of scrimmage. He lost a yard, and after a holding penalty on Sam Cosmi, the Commanders had to settle for a field goal.
Winning teams need to be able to run the ball in from the one-yard line. At the very least, they cannot lose yards on running plays in that situation.
Washington was better in the second half when Robinson had several nice holes to run through. But there is no consistency. The Commanders can look potent for a couple of plays and then revert to the type of running back play we saw in the first half.
In that half, offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury only had his offense run eight times. On five of those plays, they managed two yards or fewer. The totals were elevated by Daniels’ 25-yard scamper. But a run game in which more than half of the plays are stuffed at the line for no more than two yards results in an offense that is constantly playing behind the chains.
The Commanders could have lost this game if first-round quarterback Michael Penix Jr., making just his second NFL start, didn’t miss on at least five throws to open receivers. They could have lost if Atlanta’s regular kicker Younghoe Koo were healthy. They could have lost if the overtime coin flip had gone the other way.
Of course, they didn’t.
They won the game and should be lauded for their remarkable resilience. But there is still much work to do, and it begins with addressing the running game.
It can be hard to tell whether the high number of plays that are stuffed at the line is the result of a faulty scheme, faulty execution, or a simple lack of physicality. It’s likely some combination of all three factors.
Whatever the reason, Kingsbury and run game coordinator Anthony Lynn need to get it fixed soon. Though at times it may not seem like it, there is a limit to how often Daniels can bail this team out.