I hope Washington Commanders’ fans will bear with me for a moment because I am going to begin this story with a few words about those dreaded Philadelphia Eagles.
Their recent history has something to say about what the Commanders are experiencing early in 2025.
The Eagles won the NFC East in 2019, despite arguably having the least imposing offensive skill position players in the league. Their top wide receiver, Alshon Jeffrey, had fewer than 500 yards. Their top running back, Miles Sanders, averaged about 50 yards per game.
They did have a couple of good tight ends — one named Zach Ertz — and a quarterback in Carson Wentz who had yet to fall from grace. However, the reason their offense was successful was the effectiveness of their offensive line.
That line boasted All Pros at center and right tackle. The left tackle was nearing the end of his career, which had been filled with Pro Bowls and All-Pro selections. The right guard was a three-time Pro Bowler in his prime. And the left guard — the least distinguished member of the group — would be chosen for the Pro Bowl after he moved to the Pittsburgh Steelers.
Yet in 2020, the Eagles plummeted to a 4-11-1 record. What happened?
Almost every one of those linemen got hurt. Not minor nicks and scratches. Major injuries. In some cases, season-ending issues.
Only center Jason Kelce survived the carnage, and Philadelphia had a disastrous year. In 2021, after regaining their health, the Eagles returned to the playoffs.
Commanders can overcome injuries, but not if the current trend continues
I don’t need to tell Commanders fans that injuries can spoil your Sunday faster than realizing it’s 12:55 and you forgot to buy beer and wings. Washington is dealing with a spate of concerns that may have already cost them a winnable game against the Atlanta Falcons.
But the mere fact of injuries does not doom an NFL team. Obviously, losing a star quarterback like Jayden Daniels hurts, but Washington is set up to deal with that, provided he can return at full strength.
Marcus Mariota can step in for a while. Adam Peters has assembled a roster that allows many reserves to step into the breach.
But what the Commanders cannot withstand is multiple injuries in the same position group. Mariota can win some games playing quarterback. If Josh Johnson has to take over, I don’t like Washington’s chances.
Thus far, the Commanders’ position is not as egregious as that of the Philadelphia offensive line in 2020, but it is inching in that direction. Losing reserve defensive end Javontae Jean-Baptiste would generally be a modest obstacle for the club. Still, coming on the heels of Deatrich Wise Jr.'s season-ending injury, the significance of his pectoral problem is magnified.
Losing Terry McLaurin for a few weeks certainly hurts the passing game. It hurts all the more because Noah Brown was already missing.
The Commanders’ secondary struggled mightily against Atlanta. It is no coincidence that both Will Harris and Jonathan Jones were lost recently.
Teams only carry so much quality depth. Multiple injuries require them to turn to untested youngsters from the practice squad or veteran cast-offs from other clubs. Safety Darnell Savage Jr. was on the field in Week 4 despite having been signed to the roster days before the game. Had the versatile Jones still been available, that may not have been the case.
Wise’s injury had already caused Washington to elevate Jalyn Holmes from the practice squad. Now, with Jean-Baptiste out, the recently signed Preston Smith may be forced to take on a significant role.
The Commanders are getting by with projected backups playing significant minutes at running back and tight end as well. As of now, they have only had to go to the primary backup. If they can stay at that level, they should be fine until the starters can return.
But if more injuries occur at already depleted positions, this season could slip away before it really gets started.
In terms of injuries, the Commanders were very fortunate in 2024. They had the fifth-lowest adjusted games lost (AGL) in the league. That figure attempts to break down the numbers to assign a value to each injury, so that a starting quarterback is not valued the same as a backup safety. Since it assigns greater weight to projected starters, it also values backups who move into starting positions due to injury more highly.
AGL is typically computed at the end of a season, but we can already see that Washington is suffering more health problems in 2025 than it did in 2024.
Injuries are likely to continue as the season progresses. The key for Washington is that those injuries do not pile up at any one position group. If they are spread out, the Commanders can weather the storm and perhaps be even stronger.
If they do cluster in one or two positions, there is very little chance Washington will have a successful season. Just ask the Eagles — at least those who were on the team in the ill-fated 2020 season — how that story plays out.