Commanders get compelling proof they chose the right kicker in Drew Stevens

The signs were building. And the Washington Commanders made their decision to move forward with undrafted rookie Drew Stevens as their starting kicker over veteran Jake Moody.

And some innovative, advanced metrics from FanSided's kicking guru and NFL/NBA senior director, Adam Fromal, lend further weight to Washington's choice.

Stevens had the momentum. He passed his preseason test with flying colors against the Miami Dolphins as Moody looked shaky, and that was all the Commanders needed to see.

Drew Stevens always had a distinct advantage over Jake Moody in Commanders' kicking competition

It's a big risk, but if the Iowa product can maximize this chance, this could finally be the answer to Washington's long-running instability at the kicking position.

Fromal agrees. His Kicker Value Added metric is the most comprehensive evaluation of kickers you'll find anywhere. And his assessment of Stevens' ability, particularly the distance of his successful attempts and the proven ability to cope with adverse weather conditions, tipped the scales in the first-year pro's favor.

"His average made field goal came from 39.4 yards last year, and his experience in adverse weather conditions could give him the proverbial leg up on Jake Moody to helm the Washington Commanders' depth chart."

Turns out, he was right.

Before we get into it, let's break down the Kicker Value Added (KVA) and its relevance to the ever-changing world of modern-day kicking. It's a constantly evolving evaluation, and the metric breaks it down perfectly.

"Instead of treating all makes and misses equally, KVA measures how much value a kicker actually adds (or costs) relative to league expectations from the same distances across the field. A long-distance conversion shouldn’t be weighed the same as a chip shot, and a miss doesn’t carry the same meaning everywhere on the field. Making a 55-yarder this year shouldn't be treated the same as a kicker drilling a 55-yarder in 1985. KVA captures that difference."

Leg strength isn't everything, but it matters a lot more now than ever.

Distance matters more than ever for NFL kickers, and Drew Stevens offers more to Commanders

Stevens had a distinct advantage over Moody in this regard. His accuracy in camp from efforts beyond 45 yards far outweighed the 2023 third-round pick out of Michigan. He looks capable of hitting anywhere up to 60 yards and maybe even beyond that. As all fans know, this is something the Commanders haven't had for the best part of a decade.

If not longer.

While the 80 percent field-goal success rate in college is somewhat concerning, Fromal's assessment of Stevens' ability to handle adverse conditions offers reason for encouragement. It's also something that has gone completely overlooked when assessing the rookie and Moody throughout this process.

It represents a journey into the unknown, but the poise, leg strength, and temperament to handle the big moments are there. And based on his efforts throughout the offseason, the best could be yet to come.

With kickers, it's the mental just as much as the physical. Stevens showed the right resolve at Iowa during his record-setting stint with the program. More will be needed in the pros, but Fromal believes his true ceiling still isn't known.

"Though Drew Stevens showed off his powerful leg and mental resiliency throughout a tumultuous but record-setting career at Iowa, the Commanders are still figuring out how his power will translate as he makes the necessary tweaks to up his kick trajectory. Experience in poor weather conditions and a lengthy long-range resume work in his favor, but the jury is still out on his true upside."

This is a fair assessment. But the unknown ceiling is what made Stevens the obvious choice over Moody, who has been given countless chances to impress but has failed to capitalize on any.

Kicker Value Added metric lends weight to Commanders' decision to cut Jake Moody

Moody's KVA over the last two seasons is -13.56. Fromal revealed this put the veteran in "a tier of his own", and not in a good way. For context, Dallas Cowboys kicker Brandon Aubrey's KVA over the same period is +24.25. And in an NFC East division where the margins are finer than ever this season, that carries a ton of weight.

The Commanders wanted to give Moody another shot, but he was never going to get a clear run to the starting job again. Stevens' arrival initially elicited a positive response. Unfortunately, it didn't take long for the cracks to appear when the intensity ramped up.

Peters saw it, and he put Moody out of his misery.

Stevens' KVA during his rookie campaign should be something fans monitor closely, and we will be keeping you fully updated. There will be ups and downs, but the Commanders need to give him a leash to make mistakes and grow.

Staying the course is Washington's only option. Otherwise, the frustrating kicking carousel will only continue.

It's the opportunity Stevens has waited for and worked so hard to attain. He believed Washington was the best place to carve out a successful career for himself despite offers from elsewhere, and he was right.

What comes next is even more important. And for fans, the KVA metric will provide a true assessment of Stevens' credentials.

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