As soon as the final pick of the 2025 NFL Draft was announced, armchair analysts began publishing mock drafts for 2026. But those projections grew far more meaningful once the regular season concluded.
For non-playoff teams like the Washington Commanders, we now know exactly where they will be picking in the first round.
Number seven. Barring a trade, that’s where Adam Peters will make his selection.
In that position, he should find a dynamic playmaker who will have an immediate impact. Peters will not be choosing a quarterback, which means whoever Washington ends up with will not be a project. They should be ready on day one.
Commanders must find a transformative prospect with their first-round pick in 2026
Things are going to change over the next few months as the NFL Scouting Combine, pro days, interviews, and medical assessments unfold. Still, most of the prospects who will be selected in the top 10 are already fairly well known.
During the regular season, the consensus, such as it was, focused on two positions and several players for the Commanders. Most early mocks had Peters picking a wide receiver — Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson were the most popular. Washington also needs edge-rushing help, which put David Bailey and Rueben Bain Jr. under the microscope.
Toss in receiver Makai Lemon and edge Keldric Faulk, and you pretty much exhausted the common wisdom regarding who the Commanders would pick.
According to newer mocks, that has changed. The new consensus focuses on three players, only one of whom is included in the above-mentioned group.
Everyone recognizes the Commanders are in desperate need of edge rushers, and Bailey remains a popular choice. But showing up even more often is safety Caleb Downs. If there is a consensus pick for Washington at this point, it is the Ohio State prospect.
The Commanders need safeties, perhaps even more than they need edge rushers. The 2025 starters, Quan Martin and Will Harris, were both major disappointments. Both could be gone next year. Everyone recognizes Downs as a superior talent — maybe the best pure football player in the entire draft.
The third player, who might seem like more of a surprise, is Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love.
The Commanders seem happy with 2025 breakout star Jacory Croskey-Merritt. Chris Rodriguez Jr. was a solid complement. It would not appear that Washington needs another running back — at least not as much as it needs a safety or an edge rusher. But there is something else to consider, and this gets to the philosophy that each general manager relies on when drafting.
When you are picking in the top 10, you need a transformative player. With the possible exception of the quarterback position, you cannot let need override talent at the top of the draft.
Therefore, if you look at Bailey and see Josh Sweat, that’s not bad at all. But it’s not transformative. If you see Brian Branch in Downs, it's the same deal.
But if you study Love and see the next Jahmyr Gibbs, then to me, you have to take him.
Of course, if your comp for Bailey is Will Anderson Jr. or you see Downs as the next Kyle Hamilton, the math is different. Those are indeed transformative players. But as of today, that’s not what I see.
Bailey is very good. Downs is excellent. Love is transformative.
If Peters sees it the same way, he has to take Love, regardless of perceived need.