Most thought the Washington Commanders overpaid for defensive lineman Javon Kinlaw in free agency last year. Most also thought that the financial ramifications of an early departure would guarantee his spot on the 53-man roster in 2026.
While that will probably still be the case, one NFL analyst doesn't believe it's that clear-cut with OTAs on the not-too-distant horizon.
Eyebrows raised in unison across the media when Washington gave Kinlaw a three-year, $45 million contract with $30 million guaranteed. His brash talk throughout the campaign wasn't backed up effectively enough. And with a $16.2 million salary-cap hit next season, significant improvements are needed.
NFL analyst touts Javon Kinlaw as potential Commanders cut candidate
Moe Moton of The Bleacher Report thought Kinlaw may not even make it to Week 1, naming him as Washington's best player who could still be cut this offseason. The analyst placed him among the NFL's most overpaid players, and the arrival of free-agent signing Charles Omenihu could make his situation precarious.
"Last offseason, the Washington Commanders signed Javon Kinlaw to a three-year, $45 million deal. Based on his production in 2025, he's one of the league's most overpaid players.
"Kinlaw finished the previous campaign without a sack, logging 43 tackles (five for loss). Earning $15 million annually, the 28-year-old needs more pass-rushing production. He may not get another chance to play up to his contract with free-agent acquisition Charles Omenihu in the mix for snaps on the defensive line."
There is no doubt Kinlaw needs to start justifying the faith shown in him by general manager Adam Peters and head coach Dan Quinn. But again, it would be a bombshell if the Commanders cut this costly experiment short after just one season.
They are not blessed with the best depth along what is expected to be a new 3-4 defensive front. Kinlaw looks set to occupy one of the end roles opposite Daron Payne, with Tim Settle Jr. operating as the nose tackle. Johnny Newton is the pass-rush specialist, and Omenihu has the versatility to play on the front or as a 3-4 outside linebacker.
As stated previously, it also makes no financial sense to cut Kinlaw.
If the Commanders eventually pulled the plug this summer, it would save Washington just $700,000, with a whopping dead cap figure of $15.5 million. Peters has enough spare cap space to absorb this hit, but it seems highly unlikely, all the same.
Releasing Kinlaw early becomes much more feasible next year, which only increases the pressure on his shoulders. The Commanders would save $7 million with $9 million in dead money. If it were a post-June 1 designation, the savings would rise to $13.3 million.
If Kinlaw doesn't feel an added sense of urgency, he should. Because any more poor performance levels will almost certainly see his time in Washington come to an abrupt halt in 2027.
High stakes, indeed.
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