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Commanders vs. 49ers prediction and odds for NFL Week 16 (Don’t lose faith in Washington)

By Iain MacMillan

Dec 18, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) carries the ball against the New York Giants during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 18, 2022; Landover, Maryland, USA; Washington Commanders running back Antonio Gibson (24) carries the ball against the New York Giants during the first half at FedExField. Mandatory Credit: Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports /
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After a Week 15 loss to the Giants, the Washington Commanders are clinging on to the final spot in the NFC Playoffs.

The final stretch of their season isn’t exactly easy either, including a Week 16 showdown with the San Francisco 49ers.

But, with that being said, I’d encourage you to not lose faith in the Commanders. I have confidence they’ll at least put up a fight against the 49ers on Christmas Eve.

Let’s take a look at the odds for the game, and then I’ll break down why I think Washington can cover the spread as road underdogs.

Commanders vs. 49ers Odds, Spread, and Total

Commanders vs. 49ers Betting Trends

  • Commanders are 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine games
  • The UNDER is 9-3 in the Commanders’ last 12 games
  • Commanders are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games
  • Commanders are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games against NFC West opponents
  • 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games
  • 49ers are 10-1 straight up in their last 11 home games
  • The UNDER is 5-1 in the last six meetings between these teams

Commanders vs. 49ers Prediction and Pick

I won’t go as far to make the argument that the Commanders will win this game, but I at least have them covering the touchdown spread in this battle between two NFC playoff teams.

When you look at the stat “net yards per play,” Washington has excelled over its last three games, ranking ninth in the NFL in that stretch at +0.5. Meanwhile, the 49ers have struggled in that area when playing at home, coming in at 11th in net yards per play at +0.4.

The Commanders success has largely been due to their defense, which remains one of the better units in the league and they’ll be able to lean on them in this game. Washington ranks 10th in opponent yards per play, fourth in third down defense, and 16th in red zone defense.

As well as Brock Purdy has played for the 49ers, you can expect some bumps in the road in his play soon. The more he plays, the more film opposing teams will have on him, which will mean the more they’ll be able to exploit his weaknesses. He has overperformed through his first couple of starts, and regression could come for him on Saturday.

I’m sorry to announce that the 49ers are overall a better football team, but there are some signs and bright spots that Washington will at least give them a run for their money on Saturday.

I’ll take the Commanders with the points.

You can track Iain’s bets on Betstamp here.

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Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

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