Projecting a contract extension for Commanders star Daron Payne

The Washington Commanders have a busy offseason ahead. While the quarterback conundrum will be front and center in terms of coverage, the future of free agent Daron Payne is maybe the most important storyline for fans.

It’s really this simple: the interior defensive line has been the team’s foremost strength this season.

That’s not a dig at Montez Sweat, but Payne and Jonathan Allen have formed the best defensive tackle tandem in the league this year. It would be downright foolish to break up that partnership after an incredible 2022.

While Phidarian Mathis and John Ridgeway offer a ton of upside, you’re not replacing Payne’s production with two space-eaters. Already a force against the run, Payne’s morphed into a game-wrecker as a pass-rusher. He’s lived in opponent’s backfields, already notching a career-high in sacks, QB hits and tackles for loss.

With interior defenders finally getting their due respect, Payne will command a substantial contract. The Commanders would be smart to re-sign him before he reaches free agency, but you also couldn’t blame Payne if his reps encouraged him to test the market. That will surely increase his price tag.

With no game to focus on this weekend, let’s put our general manager hats on and project a contract extension for the budding star.

Projecting a contract extension for Commanders’ Daron Payne.

While Jon Allen is technically the more productive player, his extension came before the 2021 season. With the market evolving every offseason, it’s not crazy to think Payne’s contract will be worth more than his longtime teammate’s. If you need a reminder, Allen signed a four-year, $72 million extension.

To say the DT market is bound to explode would be an understatement. Joining Payne in the 2023 free agent class are the Eagles’ Javon Hargrave and Fletcher Cox, Jets’ Sheldon Rankins, and Steelers’ Larry Ogunjobi. Make no mistake, Hargrave will push for $20 million annually.

That list doesn’t even include Chiefs star Chris Jones, who’ll have just one year remaining on his four-year contract in 2023. Additionally, studs Jeffery Simmons (Titans), Quinnen Williams (Jets), Dexter Lawrence (Giants), and Ed Oliver (Bills) are all extension-eligible entering the final year of their rookie deals.

It would behoove Washington to get ahead of the market, but Payne will still command anywhere between $20-24 million. As of this writing, only three non-Aaron Donald interior defenders pocket $20 million or more annually: the Giants’ Leonard Williams and Colts’ DeForest Buckner (both at $21 million) and Chris Jones at $20 million.

With that in mind, a four-year, $90 million deal sounds reasonable for Payne. The $22.5 million annual average value would make him the game’s second-highest paid player at the position behind Donald’s $31.6 million. Like McLaurin, Washington could lessen the cap blow by giving Payne a big signing bonus. McLaurin’s $28 million signing bonus was the largest ever for a wide receiver.

A four-year, $90 million deal might seem expensive — especially in comparison to Allen’s contract — but it could look like a bargain before the market explodes after Hargrave, Jones, Simmons, Williams, Lawrence and Oliver cash in with their respective teams.

Would you keep Payne at this price?