After playing arguably the NFL’s best (Eagles) and worst (Texans) teams in consecutive weeks, the Washington Commanders will lock horns with an Atlanta Falcons side that is the definition of a middle-of-the-pack squad. Unlike the Texans, though, the Falcons are full of confidence and have the playoffs in their sights.
The Falcons are a tough team to figure out, but they show up almost every Sunday, so Washington fans should expect a close game. Atlanta’s picked up wins against the Seahawks, Browns, and Bears and they dominated the 49ers — a top three team in the NFC — by two touchdowns at home.
Despite being in a rebuild, the Falcons have just two double-digit losses on their resume, and three of their losses to the Saints, Rams and Chargers came by a combined eight points, so those could’ve easily been wins.
At 5-6, Atlanta is nipping at the Commanders’ heels in the NFC playoff standings, which seemingly get more crowded with each passing week.
Let’s check out the odds for Sunday’s game at FedEx Field.
Commanders vs Falcons Odds for Week 12
FanDuel’s early betting odds have the Commanders as — wait for it — -4.5 favorites (!) against the Falcons. This spread is by far the biggest in Washington’s favor all season, including last week vs Houston, where they were -3 favorites. They have -110 odds to cover the spread and are -225 to win outright on the moneyline.
The Falcons are also -110 to cover the spread, but have +180 odds to win on the moneyline as underdogs. The over/under for Sunday checks in at 41.5 points, with the over set at -115 and the under coming in at -105.
Commanders vs Falcons Prediction for Week 12
The Falcons are a great matchup for the Commanders on paper. For the season, Atlanta ranks third in total rushing yards and sixth in yards per attempt, while Washington has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards and rank ninth in yards allowed per carry. Talk about an unstoppable force meeting an immovable object.
Normally, these situations tend to favor the defense. While Cordarrelle Patterson, Tyler Allgeier and Caleb Huntley form an underrated three-headed committee (all three are averaging over 4.7 yards per carry) Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne and Montez Sweat are playing so dominant right now that it’s literally and figuratively impossible to bet against them.
If the Commanders hinder Atlanta’s running game and force Marcus Mariota, who’s inconsistent play has sparked conversation about whether third-round rookie Desmond Ridder should take over the offense, to beat them, they should win this game.
Taylor Heinicke and Co. will have to take care of business on offense, but the Falcons have allowed the most passing yards and the 11th-most rushing yards in the NFL, so that’s the least of our concerns.
Commanders 27, Falcons 23