Commanders vs Texans odds and prediction for Week 11 matchup

PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 14: Taylor Heinicke #4 of the Washington Commanders (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
PHILADELPHIA, PA - NOVEMBER 14: Taylor Heinicke #4 of the Washington Commanders (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images) /

The Washington Commanders will have to play arguably the best and worst teams in consecutive weeks. While Taylor Heinicke and Joey Slye pushed Ron Rivera to a win over the previously unbeaten Philadelphia Eagles, the squad now has to avoid a classic trap game against an AFC South foe.

The Houston Texans are currently in a prime position to take either CJ Stroud or Bryce Young in the 2023 NFL Draft, as Lovie Smith’s team owns the No. 1 pick. Despite their struggles, Davis Mills and company have very rarely had the doors blown off them in their losses.

Only one of Houston’s losses has come by more than 12 points despite all their limitations. Washington would be foolish to overlook them, as corraling Dameon Pierce is going to be a big challenge for this defensive line after their dominant performance against Philly.

Will Heinicke move to 4-1 as a starter this season and keep the Commanders in the thick of the playoff picture? Is there a shot of Mills and the Texans pulling off the home upset and stunning the fans in Washington?

Commanders vs Texans Odds for Week 11

Per FanDuel’s betting odds, the Commanders are a -3 favorite over the Texans. Washington has -118 odds to cover the spread. Washington is -168 to win outright, while Houston is +142 on the moneyline. The over under is 40.5, with the over set at -114 and the under at -106.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.

Commanders vs Texans Prediction for Week 11

Expect a low-scoring, back-and-forth game in this matchup. The numbers might not bear it out completely, but Houston actually has a very good pass defense that has made it tough on opposing quarterbacks. Derek Stingley Jr. will give Terry McLaurin everything he can handle.

One area Washington should be able to beat up on Houston is in the running game. Rookie Brian Robinson and Antonio Gibson wore down the Jordan Davis-less Eagles, and they should do the same against arguably the worst run-stopping unit in the league.

The winner of this game will be decided by whichever team can take better care of the ball and performs well in the fourth quarter. Considering that Mills has struggled late in many of his 2022 losses, Heinicke and Washington have an edge here.

If Heinicke can avoid the turnovers that have plagued him thanks to his cavalier style of playing the game, Washington should be able to grind out enough scoring drives to send the Texans closer to the No. 1 pick.

Commanders 24, Texans 16.