Commanders vs Bears: Best prop bets for Thursday Night Football

The Washington Commanders need a win. It’s as simple as that. With the Commanders sitting at 1-4 and Ron Rivera setting the already-perturbed fan base ablaze by blaming the quarterback position as the biggest reason Washington has fallen behind its division rivals, fans are reaching their breaking point.

The Commanders were two yards away from turning their season around against Tennessee on Sunday, but a lack of timeouts (due to Rivera) forced Scott Turner to dial up three consecutive passing plays. The plays lacked any semblance of creativity and Cason Wentz was picked off on third down to effectively end the game after his previous two passes were lucky not to be intercepted.

Luckily, the Bears present a highly winnable matchup for Washington. We admittedly thought the same regarding the Titans, but Chicago is one of the worst teams in football and their biggest strength (running the football) falls right into the Commanders’ biggest strength (stopping the run).

We already know Washington’s a road underdog, so let’s check out some of our favorite prop bets for this Thursday Night Football matchup.

Commanders vs Bears: Best prop bets for Thursday Night Football

3. Commanders over 19.5 total points (-102)

The over/under for Thursday is set at 38.5 points. No surprises there, as Washington and Chicago are two of the NFL’s worst offense’s. Through five games, they rank 26th and 27th, respectively, in points scored per game. As far as total yards are concerned, the Commanders check in 19th, while the Bears check in at 31st.

The Commanders haven’t scored more than 20 points since Week 2 and have totaled 35 points over the last three weeks combined. For context, six teams, including the Jets, racked up 30 or more this past weekend alone. Scoring points hasn’t come easy for Washington, but the offense showed signs of life against the Titans and we like them to use that as a springboard for this primetime matchup.

That’s not to say we expect Washington to score 30 points, but 20 or more is definitely plausible against a middling Bears defense.

2. Terry Mclaurin over 51.5 receiving yards (-114)

The Bears oddly rank ninth in passing yards and have only allowed four passing touchdowns through five games. While impressive, it’s worth noting they’ve played three lousy passing offenses in the Giants and Texans and played in a monsoon against the 49ers to open the season, so those numbers are skewed.

More notably, the Bears offered little resistance against the Vikings this past weekend; the most formidable offense they’ve played to date, allowing Kirk Cousins to throw for 289 yards, Dalvin Cook to rush for 94 yards and two touchdowns on 5.2 YPC and Justin Jefferson to compile 154 receiving yards on 12 catches.

We’ve been trying to manifest that stat line, or something close to it, for Terry McLaurin for weeks now. While 12 catches and 150-plus yards might not be feasible, McLaurin is a safe bet to hit his receiving prop, as Bears No. 1 corner Kyler Gordon’s allowed 397 receiving yards and an 80.6 completion rate on 36 targets.

If not now, then when for McLaurin?

1. Curtis Samuel anytime touchdown scorer (+290)

After scoring touchdowns in back-to-back weeks to open the campaign, Samuel’s gone three straight games without scoring. Look for that streak to get snapped Thursday night. The 26-year-old receiver consistently leads the Commanders in targets and he’s seen markedly more red zone looks relative to McLaurin.

With Jahan Dotson (hamstring) unlikely to play on the short turnaround, Samuel should see a massive target share against the Bears. While McLaurin might ultimately lead Washington in receiving, Samuel will find the end zone.

Scott Turner is currently under fire from fans for his lack of red zone creativity at the end of the Titans game, but he’s been pretty consistent dialing up plays for Samuel and finding ways to get the dynamic playmaker the ball in space.

Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.