These maddening stats prove Scott Turner must change second down philosophy

The Washington Commanders offense should be much-improved in 2022.

While the arrival of Carson Wentz figures to pay huge dividends, the selection of Jahan Dotson, a rejuvenated and healthy Curtis Samuel, return of JD McKissic and Logan Thomas and selections of Brian Robinson, who could return by Week 5, and Cole Turner give Wentz maybe the best supporting cast of his career.

We didn’t even mention the offensive line. Though it has some new additions, including Andrew Norwell and Trai Turner, the belief is OL guru John Matsko will have the group working like a fine-tune machine right out of the gates.

Of course, all of these new (and returning) shiny toys puts more pressure on Washington’s offensive coaches. That includes offensive coordinator Scott Turner, whom our very own Jonathan Eig believes (for good reason) faces pressure to deliver in his third year at the helm.

While most fans believe in Turner as a play-caller, the following maddening stats prove he must scrap and change his second-down approach. Per Warren Sharp of Sharp Football, the Commanders ranked third in the NFL last season in calling a run on second down after a sack or incompletion on first down.

Commanders offensive coordinator Scott Turner needs to change his approach on second down.

These stats shouldn’t surprise anyone. How many times would Washington call Antonio Gibson’s number for a run up the middle on second and long? We love the idea of throwing on first down, but calling a run play on 2nd and 10 or potentially longer is a popular strategy amongst the dregs of the league, for whatever reason.

The Titans are an outlier because of Derrick Henry. When you have the best running back in the league who steamrolls defenders for fun obviously your run percentage on second down is going to rank among the highest in the NFL. For his career (1,401 carries), Henry’s averaged a healthy 4.9 yards per attempt.

Notice a pattern? Teams that didn’t make the playoffs reside near the top and teams that made the playoffs sit at the bottom.

Kyle Shanahan runs a run-first offense, so it’s no surprise San Francisco’s in the top 10. The fact Minnesota is tied for fifth is ridiculous, too, given they have Kirk Cousins, Justin Jefferson and Adam Thielen in the passing game. Not hard to figure out the parallels between the other eight teams in the top 10, though.

The fact Washington attempted fewer second-down runs in the third quarter is promising, but suggests they were often trailing and had to throw, which is true. Still, a 47 percent second-down run rate is not ideal for today’s QB-driven league.

It’s duly noted Turner was hamstrung by Taylor Heinicke, but there’s no defending not getting more creative on second down. Calling a run in that situation is begging to turn into a 3rd and long, and Heinicke isn’t the QB you want to put in that spot.

Hopefully, Turner’s second-down philosophy changes with Wentz presiding over the offense, because Washington is doomed if it continues.