Analytics expert uncovers major flaw with Commanders’ second-half schedule
By Jerry Trotta
The Washington Commanders‘ 2021 schedule was unforgiving.
From playing seemingly every superstar quarterback in the league, to playing five-straight games against the NFC East to close the season, four of which were vs the Cowboys and Eagles, it’s no surprise their 2022 slate is much lighter.
The Commanders will have two incredibly easily stretches, including their first two games and their four-game run before the bye. In terms of potential pitfalls, having to wait until Week 14 to enjoy the bye isn’t ideal in a 17-game schedule and the final three contests are anything but easy and could determine their season.
At face value, the schedule is a positive. Between the combined win percentage of their opponents from last year and the expected win total of said opponents, Washington should finish the year with more than seven victories.
Having said that, a damning discovery was brought to our attention by analytics whisperer Warren Sharp, the founder of Sharp Football Analysis. Basically, the Commanders, Jaguars and Jets all got dealt a brutal hand by the NFL.
look at how it's backloaded for WAS:
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 13, 2022
wk 10 vs PHI
wk 13 vs NYG
wk 16 vs SF
wk 18 vs DAL
in every instance, those opponents:
1) have 10 days rest to get ready for the Commanders
2) have 3 days rest edge over Washington
and it's all late in the season, unfortunate for WAS
The Commanders’ second-half schedule has a major hidden flaw.
It’d be one thing if the Commanders were playing teams who were coming off the elusive mini-bye early in the season. That’s bound to happen to most clubs. The fact it happens four times and all four matchups come in the second half, including two of the final three weeks, is flat-out ridiculous.
In Week 10, the Eagles will have a whopping10 days rest before facing Washington, which will travel to Philadelphia for Monday Night Football that week. The previous week, Philly will have played Thursday night in Houston. The Commanders, on the other hand, will have played Sunday at home vs Minnesota.
The same can be said for Week 13 vs the Giants. The previous week, New York will have played on Thanksgiving in Dallas, thus giving them 10 days to prepare for the Commanders, who would be coming off a home game against Atlanta on Sunday. It’s a full week’s rest for Ron Rivera’s side, but three days less than the G-Men.
In Week 15, the 49ers will play on Thursday Night Football against the Seahawks before heading home to face Washington on Christmas Eve.
This marks yet another Thursday affair for a team before they lock horns with the Commanders, who will be rebounding from a Sunday game vs the Giants, which could be flexed to primetime given the kickoff time has yet to be decided.
so while the schedule makers reduced the big picture swings from total rest disparity to shrink the delta...
— Warren Sharp (@SharpFootball) May 13, 2022
...they introduced new problems the likes we've not seen, like 3 teams playing 4 games vs opponents each off mini-byes giving opponents longer rest + a rest advantage
And finally, we arrive at Week 18, when Washington will play host to the Cowboys on Sunday at a time that’s to be determined. Care to guess when Dallas plays the week prior? You guessed it, Thursday night against Tennessee on Amazon Prime. The Commanders, meanwhile, get the Browns that same Sunday.
Sharp hits the nail right on the head.
At the end of the day, the improvements made to the NFL schedule were vastly outweighed by the disappointments. While there are more short-week road games, the rest disparity narrative is a huge problem and it’s so typical that it affects the Commanders more so than the league’s other 29 teams.
Anyone down to form an alliance with Jets and Jaguars fans?
dark. Next. 3 most concerning games on Commanders' schedule