Washington Commanders: The Carson Wentz trade, bullet pointed

The Washington Commanders trade for Carson Wentz to be their starting quarterback. I toss out the three different pieces I was working on about what the Washington Commanders should do about their starting quarterback. (NOTE: none of them had the Washington Commanders trading for Carson Wentz.)

And so now that the dust has begun to settle, let’s bullet point the crap out of this.

1.      I have heard two national figures say that Carson Wentz may not be an upgrade over Taylor Heinicke. These experts may be lovely human beings, but on this, they are insane. Say whatever you want about intangibles. Wentz has an NFL arm. Heinicke does not. In 2021, the year that got him run out of Indy, Wentz was 11th in the league in TD% and third in INT%.  Heinicke was 21st and 27th, respectively.

2.      As for the trade itself, the draft picks are fine. Taking on Wentz’s salary, not so much.

3.      Now, who will the Commanders take with the No. 11 overall pick in the first round? No one. They will trade back. They have to recover some of those draft picks. (They were already short on picks before the trade.) There are wide receivers, linebackers, safeties, and interior offensive linemen who will available in the late first round and second round. You have to trade back at this point.

4.      There is a little bit of growing speculation that the Washington Commanders will still draft a quarterback. I wouldn’t rule that out, but please, do not draft a late-round quarterback.  Between 2001 and 2020, they were 145 quarterbacks drafted on what is now called Day 3. Seven of them — David Garrard, Matt Cassel, FitzMagic, Tyrod Taylor, Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, and Gardner Minshew — have started at least 20 games in the NFL. That’s a bad, bad number. You may be better off grabbing a UDFA the likes Taysom Hill, Brian Hoyer or the king of the gravel voices, Tony Romo. 1st-round QBs may be iffy, but late-rounders aren’t. They almost never work out.

5.      As for the salary cap issue, Landon Collins was the first shoe to drop. We got a lot of feet on this team, and that means there will be more shoes dropping. There will be cap casualties. And there will be restructures. Wentz’s contract is guaranteed beyond 2022 so this is a minor issue at most.

6.      There is a little bit of growing speculation that the Washington Commanders will reunite Carson Wentz with free agent tight end Zach Ertz. DO NOT DO THIS. This team does not need more short/medium range targets. With Wentz, this team needs more players to stretch the field – so that the tight ends and backs already on the roster (which will hopefully include JD McKissic in 2022) have more room to operate.

7.      As for the player himself, here are the standard criticisms. Wentz can’t run. I DON’T GIVE A … (I’m not allowed to say what I was going to – this is a family site.) Mobility in the pocket is a valuable trait for a QB. Running downfield is the most overrated trait there is. Sure, if the other attributes are equal, you’d rather have a guy who can run over one who can’t. But by my count, 21 out of the last 23 Super Bowls have been won by QBs who are not downfield runners. And the two who could run – Russell Wilson and Patrick Mahomes – are at their best when they move in the pocket in order to throw, and not to run for yardage.

8.      Wentz is not careful with the ball. This is the result of two seasons – his rookie year, and his disastrous 2020, when he did indeed throw a lot of interceptions. (Though not more than Heinicke in 2021). But he has had single digit picks in four of his six seasons. And more to the point, he has thrown more than 25 TDs in three of his six seasons. The positive value of a TD pass far outweighs the negative value of an interception. This is the flip side of overvaluing a QB’s ability to run. Don’t believe me? If you look at the stats for worst interception percentage in 2021, here’s who you will find in the top nine: Matthew Stafford and Joe Burrow. Seems to me I saw those dudes in some big game recently. You know – the one where Snoop was rapping.

9.      Leadership – this is the most damning, because it does matter, and there is no way to counter it with stats. Maybe this is a problem. Or maybe Wentz found himself in unwinnable situations with a power struggle going on in Philly and an irrational owner in Indy over the past couple years. I can’t be sure about this, but I can quote Darius Leonard, a team leader in Indy who played with Wentz this past year. Leonard was not the only Colt to tweet their support. Maybe Wentz isn’t such a toxic teammate after all.

10.   I hope not, because here’s the last, most important point. Nobody knows how this is going to turn out. Even though I would have preferred a free agent like Mitch Trubisky, that doesn’t matter anymore. I am a fan and Carson Wentz is now my team’s QB. I hope he stays healthy, because Alex Smith and Ryan Fitzpatrick didn’t. I hope he leads, because Dwayne Haskins couldn’t. And I hope he wins playoff games, because nobody who has lined up under center for the Washington Commanders has done that for far too long. I’m rooting for him.