Why the Washington Commanders should trade for a quarterback

Now that they have a new name, the Washington Commanders need a new quarterback. Yeah, I know – it’s not a news flash. You already knew that. Your mom knew it. Even your cousin from Montreal who insists Yvan Cournoyer was the greatest professional athlete to ever wear the number 12 knows it.

I wrote a couple weeks ago about the strategy I would follow to secure Washington’s new QB. I just want to take a minute to elaborate on it. Because, as I mentioned last week, my attitude has undergone a complete reversal.

I used to think marginal upgrades were essential across the board to build a championship caliber football team. Hitting a home run on an Aaron Donald or Travis Kelce is great. But if you don’t bolster those stars with quality across the board, you will not get where you want. That’s the beauty of football. More than any other major team sport, you really do need a great team to win.

Now, ever since Clark Shaughnessy taught the Chicago Bears how to run T formation back in the late 1930s, the quarterback position has been more important than any other, but rule changes hindering a defense’s ability to stop the forward pass, have changed the game and the relative value of the position. The quarterback is now more dominant than ever, and there is every indication that this value will continue to grow.

The NFL is not about to begin legislating less offense.

The Rams-49ers game last weekend was a clear example. San Francisco has the best starting 21 players in the league. It’s not even close. They have elite players or players who are well above average at virtually every position.

But not at quarterback. Jimmy Garoppolo is a legitimate starter in the NFL, but he is a middle tier player. I realize he made it to a Super Bowl just a few years ago, as did Jared Goff. And look at what their coaches – two of the best minds in the game today – did in the aftermath of those Super Bowl trips. Sean McVay traded Goff for a much better quarterback in Matthew Stafford. Kyle Shanahan traded away multiple number one draft picks for the chance to select Trey Lance in the 2021 draft.

We don’t know yet how good Lance will be. There is a dismal draft history when you take a QB at number three. Names like Darnold and Bortles and Harrington. Names likes … dare I say it … Shuler. Then again, Steve McNair and Matt Ryan went at number three and both have been to the Super Bowl.

Of course, San Fran’s move will be seen as a failure if Lance proves to be a middling QB. But I still applaud them for doing it. Because – and this is where my opinion has changed – marginal upgrades at QB in today’s NFL are largely valueless.

If you want to win championships, you have to try to get an elite quarterback, and if you swing and miss, you have to reload and try again. I’m not saying it’s the only way to win (the Eagles catching the Nick Foles miracle ride a few years back is proof of that.) I’m just saying it’s the best way to do it.

There are two parts of this. The first part is the obvious one. Elite QBs win Super Bowls. Of the 33 men who have quarterbacked their team to Super Bowl glory, it is true that 11 of them are not in (or, after retirement, will not be in) the Hall of Fame. But of those 11, seven of them won their rings 30 years ago or more. I suspect one of the reasons it took me so long to come around to this point of view is that I am a fan of the one team that has won three Super Bowls without having a Hall of Fame quarterback starting in any of them. In Washington, under Joe Gibbs, we all saw that a great franchise could win gold with solid play from a QB. It did not have to be elite.

That is less true today than it was in the Gibbs 1 era.

But here’s the other part of it. Draft picks – as I have often written – are not overrated. But first round draft picks are. They be the most-overrated commodity in all of sports.

You want proof? How many starters on the Cincinnati Bengal team that will playing in the 2022 Super Bowl were drafted by the Bengals in the first round? I’ll wait while you think about it. (SPOILER ALERT: I’m going to pose the same question about the Rams in a minute.)

The answer is three. Three out of 22. Of course, those three are among the most essential players on the team – Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and left tackle Jonah Williams. They also happen to be the Bengal’s last three numbers ones, which means no number one pick prior to 2019 is a major contributor to one of the two Super Bowl teams. There are second- and third-rounders galore, as well as a bunch of free agents, but that’s it for the top picks.

For the Rams, the answer is one. Aaron Donald. That’s it. They do have a host of other former 1st rounders, but none were actually drafted by the Rams. They were acquired via trades or free agency. Some of those trades required the Rams to trade away future 1st round picks, which they obviously did. And now they are in the Super Bowl.

https://twitter.com/QBsMVP/status/1488022174761897987?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

So, even if you trade away multiple first-round draft picks to snag a great QB, and even if that QB does not live up to expectations, you are not necessarily as debilitated as you may think.

You need draft picks. In the salary cap era, filling your roster with young, cheap talent is vital. But you don’t always need first-round draft picks. I would gladly trade multiple first-rounders for a quarterback who I believe has the pedigree to be elite. At the same time, I would attempt to replenish my draft supply with lower round picks.

I might miss on my quarterback. It happens. But in today’s NFL, the smart money is on trading whatever is necessary to at least take the shot.