Determining what Washington should do at QB this offseason

I’ll admit that my thinking about the quarterback position has changed over the last few years. I used to treat quarterback like any other position. Of course I knew it was more important, but my process for decision-making was the same as for any position. And that was a simple cost-benefit evaluation. If you had to give up assets via trade, or to move up in the draft, you would evaluate the relative worth of those assets in comparison to how much of an improvement said QB was likely to offer. If your team was likely to improve, you made the deal.

But I no longer believe that marginal improvement at the quarterback position is a viable strategy in today’s NFL. Today, you either go big or go home.

So here’s what I think the Washington Football Team does now. If there is not an elite quarterback available, you go ahead and either draft a prospect (provided it costs you absolutely no draft capital or other players of value), or sign a young journeyman with a little bit of upside (provided he costs you below the average salary of an NFL starter.)

This is exactly what I proposed last year at this time. I didn’t believe the Washington Football Team would be in position to draft an elite prospect without giving up assets, so I thought signing a decent, cheap vet was the way to go. My suggestion was Tyrod Taylor. Sign him and stay on the lookout for a more elite option down the road. Tyrod Taylor is basically Taylor Heinicke with a better arm. He has been sadly limited by injury and freak accident of late, but had Tyrod Taylor been Washington’s starting quarterback in 2021, and had he stayed healthy (admittedly an iffy proposition) Washington would have been in the playoffs as a wildcard. I suspect the same thing would have happened had Ryan Fitzpatrick stayed healthy.

Drafting at 11, there will be multiple quarterbacks available. None will be seen as can’t-miss prospects. None of that matters. You draft whoever has the highest upside. If you think that is Malik Willis, you grab him. If you think it’s Carson Strong, you grab him  — even if you suspect he might be there in the second round. You take the guy with the highest-upside and then attempt to coach the hell out of him and surround him with decent weapons. For me, I’m taking one of those guys I just named, or perhaps Desmond Ridder.

I am not taking Corral, Pickett, or Howell at 11.

If I’m wrong with my choice – as does happen about half the time – then we regroup two years down the road and try again. If I’m wrong again, I’m probably out of a job.

The key for me is – don’t trade up. At least not for any of these guys.