Bold Prediction: Washington will win 11 or more games in 2022

The NFL is a league of parity and it’s not by chance.  That’s the way the league wants it. It’s smart. Keeping teams relevant longer thru the season and providing an opportunity for even the lowliest of franchises to have an occasional “magical” season generates revenue.  No professional sport provides fans with a more even playground.

Well, don’t tell that to fans of the Washington Football Team who have suffered thru the past 30 seasons without one single 11+ win season. The only team in the NFL to hold that lowly distinction.

To put that in context. Here are some numbers I compiled to show just how bad it’s been for Washington fans.

In the past 5 years, only 8 teams have not won 11+ games (25%).

In the past 8 years, only 4 teams have not won 11+ games (12.5%).

In the past 8 years, teams in the NFL team have won 11+ games an average of 1.65 times each.

Finally, since 2007 EVERY team in the NFL has won 11+ games at least once. Well, except for the WFT, as I dejectedly stated earlier. They haven’t tasted 11 or more wins since 1991.

So why will the ’22 season be different and how can I be so bold to predict 11 with so much roster turnover year to year? Well, that’s why it’s called a bold prediction:

The Washington Football Team will win 11+ games in 2022.

We’ll start here

STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE

The most obvious reason is we see teams consistently go from worst to first in the NFL.  All part of that parity mentioned earlier.  Sure, the teams with elite top eight QB’s will consistently win. But for everyone else, the strength of schedule causes the flip-flopping of playoff teams year to year. For example, half of the playoff teams from 2020 failed to reach the playoffs this year.

In ’22, Washington will play their own division twice, that never changes. The Giants are a dysfunctional mess. Fired their coach and GM. The Eagles are coming off a year much similar to the ’20 WFT season. They managed to accumulate wins & take advantage of a soft schedule with a slew of very marginal QB’s. They beat no team of note.

But it’s the non-divisional games that provide hope. Included in the list of opponents for ’22 are perennial losers Houston, Jacksonville, Detroit & Chicago. They also play teams that may be transitioning to new QB’s such as Indianapolis, San Francisco, Cleveland, Minnesota & quite possibly Green Bay with Aaron Rodgers contemplating retirement or even a possible trade out of Green Bay. That leaves Atlanta who is in salary cap hell with Matt Ryan and the Titans to round out the schedule.

Also important to note, the 17th game this year is at HOME vs the third place team from the North (Cleveland) in comparison to a road game at Buffalo the team faced this year.

RIVERA COACHING HISTORY

After two straight losing seasons, Washington fans have already started to question the coaching style and results of coach Rivera. But the fact is, Rivera produced three 11+ wins season in nine years with Carolina.

Some fans scoff at his record, but he found success a trio of times in less than a decade with the Panthers, something Washington has failed to once supersede in 3 decades. Again, in a league of parity, Rivera has proven competent to lead his teams to a 11+ win season once every three years.  This is year three for Rivera in Washington, the law of averages are in his favor.

STAYING HEALTHY 

While it’s impossible to predict health, it remains one of the common denominators of a successful season.  Last year Washington managed to play the entire year without a single active roster player testing positive for COVID-19. This year Washington’s luck ran out.  The team was ravaged by a COVID outbreak at the most important time of the year.  They managed to put together a mid-season 4-game win streak as they headed into the final 5 games of the season against divisional opponents. However, COVID and a slew of other injuries simply made the task to tall for this depleted team to overcome.

Let’s not forget, the team also played the entire season with their backup QB who was out of the league completely just a year ago. They played half their games without 2 of their top 3 offensive weapons (Logan and McKissic). Their high profile free agent WR addition Curtis Samuel was basically non-existent all year due to injury. The two playmaking edge rushers, the foundation of the defense, were sidelined for nearly half the season each due to injuries and tragic life events.

In 2022, the team must have relative health to succeed.

IMPROVED ROSTER

While we can’t predict what the roster might be next year, we do know this: The roster must improve. With the 11th pick in the NFL draft and over $60 million available cap space (top 5 in the NFL) the WFT is in position to do just that.

CONCLUSION

The rich tradition of winning has become a distant memory. Losing and dysfunction is all that anyone under the age of 40 has seen. The time to win is upon us.

2022 embarks a new era in Washington Football history. A new name will be announced in a few weeks. An opportunity for a fresh start.

With resources available to improve the roster, a schedule that is conducive for wins and a little bit of luck with player health; I predict the 2022 Washington Football Team will finally win 11+ games. And hey, with a 17-game schedule the odds do increase.

Can they sustain that success? Well, that’s entirely reliant on finding the franchise QB. A conversation for another day.