Is it time to worry about Antonio Gibson?

Antonio Gibson’s numbers

Through 13 games, Antonio Gibson is posting impressive raw statistics. On the verge of eclipsing 1,000 yards rushing, likely to hit 40 catches on the year and double-digit touchdowns, the second-year back hasn’t left planet Earth in terms of production.

So without question, this article nor should your thoughts be wondering on whether or not Washington should seek a trade to grab a solidified RB1 or draft a guy in the first round. That being said, Antonio Gibson leaves a lot out there in terms of rushing yards, catches, and pass protection.

In 2021, Antonio Gibson has faced eight or more defenders in the box on 19% of his carries. Considering the number of touches he’s received, that isn’t very often. For context, guys like Jonathan Taylor, Dalvin Cook, Christian McCaffery, and Derrick Henry all face that many defenders in the box on well over 25% of their touches, up to 37% if you run CMC. In facing that many defenders, Gibson has totaled (-3) in terms of rushing yards over expectation, which places him in the mid-’20s in that category.

In addition,Washington’s offensive line has been one of the best run-blocking units in all of football in terms of win rate and PFF grades. Gibson’s inability to make the most out of his touches on the ground hasn’t been due to poor play up front nor has it been due to defenses severely trying to limit his output.

Outlets like Pro Football Focus and others have taken notice of his decline, as his grade from the company has dropped from 85.3 as a pure “runner” in 2020, to now 65.1 in 2021. His yards per carry mark is also down from nearly five yards per clip in 2020, to just 3.9 in 2021. Again, this isn’t due to his offensive line failing to win at the line of scrimmage, but many of times due to his fresh eyes for the position, a point that we will tackle in the next slide, in closing.

Lastly, Gibson has also had six fumbles in 2021, three of which have cost Washington in some of the most crucial aspects of a game. From his early 4th quarter fumble against the Chargers deep in their own territory, to his most recent fumble on a catch against Dallas, Gibson’s inability to protect the football has become a serious issue.