Washington Football Team: Analyzing the rapid roster turnover since 2018

In the past decade, the Washington Football Team has managed three winning seasons.

When I am feeling in a generous mood, I refer to this period as one of consistent mediocrity. But then I begin to think that does a disservice to the term “mediocre.” On the plus side, there have been three division championships through the decade. On the other side, the Washington Football Team has won fewer than 40% of their games.

Since their last winning season in 2016 (when they went 8-7-1), that winning percentage has actually gotten worse. By almost any metric, this is not a mediocre franchise. It is a bad one.

So it is not surprising that there has been drastic turnover. That is why Jay Gruden replaced Mike Shanahan and why Ron Rivera has now replaced Gruden. Most importantly, it is why, at the highest echelons of management, new faces abound (Well, highest echelons if we exclude the owners’ box).

I want to take a brief look at just how much the on-field roster has turned over in recent years.

In any given year, an NFL team will have between 50 and 55 players who are on the field for at least ten percent of the team’s plays. Of course, there are plenty of quirks in these figures, and injuries can skew them higher, but the breakdown typically runs about 22 offensive players, 22 defensive players, and 10 special teamers.

If you go back three seasons, to 2018, how many of these core players would you expect to still be members of the Washington Football Team in 2021? Based on a conservative roster projection, I put the number at ten. If we exclude specialists (Dustin Hopkins and Tress Way), the number goes down to eight. If we further exclude players who are primarily special teamers (Danny Johnson and Deshazor Everett), it drops to six.

That means that over the course of four seasons, the Washington Football Team will have turned over more than 80 percent of its roster. Excluding special teams, the number rises up close to 90 percent.

On offense, the surprising release of Morgan Moses this offseason leaves just two core players from 2018 still with the club. One of them is Chase Roullier, who has been one of the unsung heroes of the team in recent years, and who was rewarded at the end of last season with a long-term contract. The other is Roullier’s linemate Brandon Scherff, who will probably be playing for another team in 2022.

The only other offensive player who played significant snaps between 2018 and 2020 is now a backup tight end with Dallas. I’d tell you who it is, but I’m kind of curious to see how many of you have already erased Jeremy Sprinkle from your memory (Damn – I slipped up and said his name).

The offensive roster was in such shabby condition when Rivera arrived that there are probably only one or two players who joined in 2019 – just two seasons ago – who will be a contributor in 2021. Fortunately, one of them is Terry McLaurin. The other is likely to be Ereck Flowers, who wasn’t even with the club in 2020.

If Steven Sims Jr. or Wes Martin somehow manages to stick around this year, that number could go up, but think of that. There are almost no players on offense who have been with this team for more than one season.

Perhaps most remarkably, with the exception of McLaurin and Cam Sims, who only recently became a contributor on offense, there is not a single skill position player who has been with the club for more than a single season. No quarterbacks. No running backs. No tight ends. Excluding McLaurin, the overhaul has been lightning fast and complete.

On defense, the number of remaining players is a little bit higher. That is not surprising, given the recent flurry of first-round draft picks spent on defensive linemen. Still, if you look back to 2018, the number is just four, and they are all linemen (Jonathan Allen, Matt Ioannidis, Daron Payne, and Tim Settle). Four other defenders who would have been on that list (Ryan Kerrigan, Ryan Anderson, Shaun Dion Hamilton, and Fabian Moreau) were all released in the 2021 offseason.

That means the linebackers and secondary have been completely overhauled in just three seasons.

The defense does look more stable if you just go back two seasons. That’s when players like Montez Sweat, Cole Holcomb, Jon Bostic, Jimmy Moreland, and Landon Collins all joined the team. Which of course, is one another way of saying that the defense is currently in a better place than the offense.

I do not mean to suggest that the Washington Football Team is somehow unique. Bad teams turn over their rosters all the time. Washington’s overhaul has been at the extreme end, but other struggling franchises make similar moves.

In the NFC East, the New York Giants have pretty much done the same thing. Just flip offense and defense. They still have five or six core offensive players from 2018. On defense, if I’m remembering right, they have B.J. Hill and, assuming he recovers from his Achilles, Lorenzo Carter. That’s about it.

The other two NFC East teams, Dallas and Philadelphia, have retained twice as many players from their 2018 rosters. Prior to the 2020 season, those teams were considered the best in the division. They both finished at the bottom. Injuries played a significant role, and we should see in 2021 if they have quality rosters, or if they, like the Washington Football Team, will have to embark on major rebuilding in the years ahead.

Washington (and New York) are one step ahead in this process. This is no guarantee of success, but if it is done correctly – and we have reason to be optimistic that Martin Mayhew, Ron Rivera, et. al. are indeed doing it that way – it is one more positive indicator for Washington’s future.