Washington Football Team: Evaluating draft value by position

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New England Patriots tight end Will Tye. Mandatory Credit: Jeremy Brevard-USA TODAY Sports /

Statistical analysis

I did a little statistical analysis of recent draft success as determined by position and by round. The Pro Football Writers Association (PFWA) has been selecting an All-Rookie Team since 2007. I just went back seven years – to 2014 – to see where the top rookies were selected in the draft.

First off, I admit this just gives a snapshot. And there is an element of self-selection in that snapshot. If teams do not value running backs in the draft, there are fewer drafted early on, which makes it more likely that lower draft picks could sneak onto the All-Rookie Team. (Indeed, three of the 14 running backs honored by the PFWA were undrafted free agents.)

And being chosen for the PFWA honor is by no means a guarantor of long-term success. Just ask Will Tye, All-Rookie tight end in 2015, who has not caught a pass in more than three years.

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Still, there are some intriguing numbers.

First of all, even though six of the seven QBs chosen by the PFWA were first-round draft picks, the position of quarterback does not have the highest round average on the All-Rookie team. That honor goes to offensive tackle. Ten of the 14 tackles to make All-Rookie were first-rounders (and 11, if you count Laremy Tunsil, who played guard in his rookie year, but is really a tackle.) There was not an All-Rookie tackle chosen later than Round 2 in the years I examined.

The one outlier amongst the first-round quarterbacks – fourth-round pick Dak Prescott in 2016, pushes the QB position behind that of tackle.

This doesn’t mean the Washington Football Team needs to draft a tackle in the first two rounds. It just means that the position does need to be valued at least as highly as – and perhaps even more highly than – the more glamorous skill positions of QB and WR.

(It also means that the mismanagement of Trent Williams is among the biggest blunders in franchise history. Premium left tackles do not grow on trees, and the previous administration simply gave away a future Hall-of-Famer through stubbornness and poor people skills.)

Here is the average draft round of the PFWA All-Rookie players since 2014, ranked by position. I assigned UDFAs, which only affects running backs (three) and tight ends (one) a numerical value of eight. I didn’t bother with special teams positions, because – well, do I really have to explain?

Offensive Tackle: 1.2
Quarterback: 1.4
Defensive Line: 1.5
Safety: 1.7
Linebacker: 1.8
Wide Receiver: 1.9
Guard: 2.0
Cornerback: 2.1
Center: 2.6
Tight End: 3.1
Running Back: 3.4

So here are my conclusions.

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