Washington Football Team vs. Buccaneers: Key area WFT must win in

There’s a key area that the Washington Football Team will have to exploit to beat the Buccaneers.

The Washington Football Team is an underdog in their Wild Card Round playoff game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this Saturday. Were Bill O’Brien still in charge of the team down in Houston, I’d be holding out some hope that he might offer a post-trade-deadline swap of Deshaun Watson for Taylor Heinicke just in time for the game.

But seeing how that is unlikely, I expect that the Bucs will continue to be a favorite and Washington could be close to a double-digit underdog in this game.

You’ll get a much more detailed matchup evaluation later in the week, but for now, let me offer this ray of sunshine. In Super Bowl XLII, another Tom Brady-led team was an even bigger favorite going up against the Wild Card club from New York. (This was Patriots-Giants No. 1, played in 2008, for those of you uncomfortable with that pretentious Roman Numeral thing.)

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In that game, Justin Tuck, Michael Strahan, et. al. made life miserable for Brady and pulled one of the biggest upsets in Super Bowl history, ignoring their role as a 14-point underdog and winning 17-14.

There are worlds of differences between that Giants team and this year’s WFT. But there is one key similarity. Both teams generate pressure on the quarterback. And the quarterback, in this case, is even less mobile than he was 13 years ago.

Brady, like any good veteran QB, has seen thousands of blitzes. You are not going to fool him. And even with downfield monster Mike Evans banged up, he will still have plenty of weapons with which to make the WFT pay if they blitz and don’t get home. Chris Godwin, Antonio Brown, Scotty Miller, and a gradually re-emerging Rob Gronkowski are formidable enough even if Evans’ knee limits his effectiveness on Saturday.

The Giants beat Brady twice in Super Bowls by generating pressure with four pass rushers, allowing a full complement of defenders to remain in coverage. That is what the WFT will have to do if they are to have any chance of winning their first playoff game since the Gibbs II era. And that pressure cannot be confined to Chase Young and Montez Sweat on the outside.

Even more importantly, Jonathan Allen, Daron Payne, and Tim Settle will have to collapse the middle of the pocket. Making Brady move is essential. If they aren’t able to do it, it could be a very long night.

I don’t expect to see a lot of exotic defenses from Jack Del Rio. As I said, that isn’t going to phase Brady. But I do expect to see some alignment variation. Chase Young has been moving around the defensive line more and more as the season has gone on, and I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see both him and Sweat occasionally line up at defensive tackle to help collapse the pocket.

I don’t think it will happen often, but look for James Smith-Williams and Casey Toohill to get a few more snaps on the outside. The goal will be to keep the pass rushers as fresh as possible and not allow the Bucs line to get into any kind of rhythm.

I would also expect a lot of zone coverage so that on those plays where the four down linemen do not get to Brady, the defense has the ability to keep Tampa’s receivers in front of them and limit big downfield plays. I would say that tackling in the secondary will be crucial but that seems a little bit too obvious, doesn’t it? Tackling in the secondary is always crucial.

If things go right, the Washington defensive line doesn’t need to sack Brady very many times. They just need to make him uncomfortable. They need to pressure and hit him on most passing plays. They can give up a few first downs provided they are able to force him into a miss on several crucial third downs. Maybe a Sweat deflection leads to an interception. Maybe a strip-sack in the fourth quarter.

It’s fairly obvious that Washington is not going to win a shootout. Even with a healthy, experienced QB, Washington’s offense is not equipped to score big. And with a hobbled Alex Smith or a total unknown in Taylor Heinicke, that is even less likely.

But even there, Washington may have reason to be hopeful. Tampa’s defense, which began the year playing very well, has been decidedly average in the second half of the season. Their sacks are way down while opposing QB’s QBR is way up over the final eight games. Most tellingly, the Bucs’ defense had an 11:11 touchdown to interception ratio in Weeks 1-8. In Weeks 9-16, that ballooned to 16:4.

Tampa will be without linebacker Devin White for the game against Washington. White tested positive for COVID-19 prior to the Bucs’ final game against Atlanta this past Sunday. Edge rusher Shaq Barrett was put on the COVID list as well due to contact, but it is expected that he will be cleared in time for Sunday’s game.

Still, the absence of White could be important. He has been a steady and productive player for Tampa all season, both as a run-stopper and as a pass rusher. Just as Washington hopes to do, Tampa will try to apply pressure from the inside, especially if Alex Smith is under center. Smith had great trouble moving out of the pocket against Philadelphia. White’s absence will hinder Tampa’s ability to generate that inside push.

Unlike Washington, look for Tampa to blitz early and often. It is part of their DNA. They are the fifth-most blitz-happy defense in the league this season. Because Washington has very little downfield talent, and because they will either have an immobile or an inexperienced signal-caller, look for Tampa to blitz even more than normal. It will be difficult for Washington to make them pay.

For a Washington fan, you might prefer to be playing one of the other Wild Card teams in a weakened NFC this year. The Rams with a damaged QB or the Bears with a healthy Mitchell Trubisky certainly seem more beatable than Tampa’s collection of aging All-Pros.

But this actually might be the match-up Washington needs right now. If whoever is under center can generate a few big plays, and if the defense can stand up the way they have shown they can against immobile quarterbacks, it is not too much of a reach to see them grind out a low-scoring victory.

Next. Three trades that could upgrade WFT's QB position. dark

Maybe 17-14. Kind of like another seemingly-overmatched NFC East team once did to a Tom Brady-led favorite.

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