Five bold predictions for the Washington Football Team in 2020

1. Washington will exceed their projected win total for 2020

I don’t predict win totals. But I will say this much. Washington’s projected win total for 2020 sits at 5.5. That tied WFT with Carolina for the third-fewest projected wins, placing ahead of only Cincinnati and Jacksonville.

I am absolutely certain that WFT will exceed that total.

So it’s not that bold. I mean, I’ve got a 50/50 chance, right? But here’s why I am confident. The one big mark against getting to at least six wins is the combination of an inexperienced quarterback and a new coaching staff. Most prognosticators think those things will have added significance this season.

But I think there are bigger mathematical factors at play. This year is an enormous crapshoot. A year in which luck will play an even bigger role than usual. Luck always matters (especially if you’re Indianapolis and Luck just walks out your door.) Injuries – a bad bounce – a bad call.

This year, the fact that some players will be opting out and that many more are likely to miss at least some time due to positive tests, means that it will matter more than ever before.

Luck has a tendency to flatten outcomes, and as such, it disproportionately benefits weaker teams. If you are Kansas City or New Orleans, you don’t want any wild cards entering the equation because you are better than everybody else. But you take Patrick Mahomes or Michael Thomas away – even for just a few games – and you begin to revert to the mean.

Of course, the same thing can happen to weaker teams, but they do not have the same number of crucial players, so they are not as likely to be hurt to the same degree. And there’s a 25 percent chance they won’t be hurt at all in a particular match-up against a stronger team.

The math doesn’t lie. Some weaker teams will benefit from the strange season we are about to embark upon.

And, though perhaps somewhat less significant and harder to quantify, the predicted atmosphere in NFL stadiums this season will be subdued. No one knows how that will impact performance, but for a team like WFT, which has recorded very poor results at home in recent seasons, any potential drop-off will not be that great. Conversely, a young team like WFT, will not be under quite the same pressure when playing on the road and having to deal with crowd noise.

Call it wishful thinking, but predicting at least six wins doesn’t feel like much of a reach. So, even though I don’t predict records, I’ll say we’re winning seven games. And if a forfeit goes our way, maybe eight.

The season is six weeks away. And the entire world may have changed by the time this even makes it to publication. But I sure hope it hasn’t. I’d kind of like to see if I get any of these right.