Scenarios that could unfold if the Redskins select Chase Young
By Tim Payne
Is Chase Young going to be worth it for the Washington Redskins? It’s time to break down what he could be if and when he joins the team.
There is one question that has dominated the discussion among Redskins fans over the last month. Should the Redskins pick Chase Young with the No. 2 pick in the upcoming NFL draft, or should they trade down?
I wrote about it back in February. The fundamental conflict at the bottom of this debate is this: If the Redskins bring Chase Young to Washington, what will he become and will it be worth the No. 2 pick? So here are the possible scenarios for Thursday night at about 8:15 Eastern Time.
1. Redskins Draft Chase Young: He’s Good
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There are countless examples of players drafted in the top 10 who are effective and successful NFL players but don’t live up to the hype. Some recent examples include Gerald McCoy, Mario Williams, Dante Fowler, Sheldon Richardson, Leonard Williams, Vic Beasley, and Marcel Dareus. Players who had some degree of success but certainly don’t have the HOF careers you hope for when drafting early in the draft.
Given the level of consensus about Chase Young’s talent, character, and athleticism, I find it highly unlikely that, barring injury, he ends up in this category. But you have to allow for injuries and other sources of bad luck. There’s a 20 percent chance Chase Young is just a good player for the Redskins.
2. Redskins Draft Chase Young: He’s Elite.
For every 10 decent players drafted in the top half of the first round of the NFL Draft, there are 1-2 who end up in the “Elite” category. Guys who are in the top-five of their position group for at least a handful of seasons while reaching multiple Pro Bowls and an All-Pro team or two during their careers.
This is a player like J.J. Watt, Von Miller, Ndamukong Suh, and Nick and Joey Bosa. These players are absolutely worth a top-10 pick and make their GMs and coaches look good for making the selection. These players, at least a good percentage of them, even end up in the Hall of Fame.
Chase Young is most likely, based on historical precedent and simple probability, going to land in this category. He’s too good to just be “good”. There’s a 65 percent chance Chase Young is an elite player for the Redskins.
3. Redskins Draft Chase Young: He’s Generational.
For a very select few players, elite is simply not superlative enough. Sean Taylor, Lawrence Taylor, Troy Polamalu, Ed Reed, Deion Sanders, Reggie White. These guys were looking down at the elite players in the league for much of their careers. They were the best of the best. They were generational.
When the Redskins make their pick at No. 2 on Thursday night, they will do so with the hope and aspiration that they are picking one such player. Not a good or great player, not an elite player, but a generational player. Nobody knows when these players come along. Too many factors play into whether someone ends up as a generational player or not. Some of it is fit. Some of it is the team around them. Some of it is injuries and other bits of luck.
Even with a player of Chase Young’s caliber, there’s only a 5 percent chance he ends up as a generational player for the Redskins.
4. Redskins Trade No. 2 – Chase Young Is Tied to Their Draft Class Forever.
Last of all, there’s a chance that the Redskins end up taking a trade offer for the No. 2 pick. Young would be forever linked with the players selected with the picks included in that trade. His career would still follow one of the three paths listed above, but instead of Redskins fans cheering for him to reach that generational category, they’d be hoping that he didn’t really pan out.
And as unlikely as it seems, there’s a 10% chance the Redskins will take a trade for the No. 2 pick. And if they do, here’s how I see the breakdown of value for what Chase Young becomes as an NFL player.
If Young ends up being good, then simply a top-8 pick and a top-40 pick will end up having been worth the trade.
If Young ends up being elite, then a top-8 pick, a top-20 pick, a top-40 pick, and a couple of late-round picks would have been required to make the trade worthwhile.
If Young ends up be generational, then it’s hard to imagine there being a trade package available that would make the trade worthwhile, but it would start with a top-6 pick, a top-20 pick, and two more first-rounders either this year or next.
Which route will the Redskins go? I’m not sure, but stuck here in quarantine mode, I sure can’t wait to watch and find out.