For Redskins, “quarantine 40-times” disrupt evaluation process

The coronavirus pandemic shut down pro days across the country for hundreds of Redskins 2020 NFL Draft prospects, but that isn’t stopping some from generating new numbers on their RAS testing cards.

There’s no avoiding it at this point; the Washington Redskins, along with 31 other NFL teams, will be working with information that is both faulty and incomplete in some cases on NFL Draft night. The only available athletic testing numbers exist for the select pool of players which appeared at the NFL Combine, as well as for the select few who had the opportunity to perform at pro days before they were cancelled.

For the teams and the prospects, losing pro days from the process was a mutually erosional occurrence. For the teams, the loss of the pro day was not only a major obstruction against forming accurate athletic profiles for lesser-known prospects, but also a hinderance for interviews and culture-fit analysis. And for the players, the loss of pro days was more obviously a missed chance to boost one’s draft stock ahead of the draft in late April.

Most players are still conferencing with teams upon request with online resources, but have more or less accepted their Combine numbers, or their lack of available numbers altogether. A select few, however, are still putting up testing numbers from where they are now. But the authenticity of these numbers have been questioned. You’ll see why in a second.

Two notable players who logged new testing numbers in isolation include Mississippi State defensive back Cameron Dantzler and TCU wide receiver Jalen Reagor. Their 40-yard dash times improved, which was to be expected. But the improvement was far more than that of a normal pro day. Dantzler ran a 4.64 at the NFL Combine, only to run a quarantined 40-time of 4.38. Reagor, meanwhile, ran a solid 4.47 at the NFL Combine, then blew that out of the water with a 4.26 average (4.22 best) over two tries in quarantine. He also dramatically improved his class-worst agility scores.

You’re supposed to expect an improvement from pro day scores, but these improvements are way too dramatic. Dantzler shaved over a quarter of a second off his initial time, and Reagor essentially did the same. Here are some sample theoretical 40-yard dash times from Redskins players, had they ever gotten the chance to conduct a quarantine-40. Case in point: The quarantine-40 lies.

• Troy Apke: 4.08
• Terry McLaurin: 4.09 (Actually might not be far off)
• Montez Sweat: 4.15
• Jeremy Sprinkle: 4.43 (Lol)

Now, this isn’t to say that Dantzler doesn’t play faster than his 4.64 Combine time, or that Reagor doesn’t play faster than his 4.47 Combine time. It’s important to cross-reference the tape with the numbers, to see how a player’s film evidence correlates with their testing data. Two sets of numbers this far apart, however, can create confusion, and evaluators may gravitate to one set, consequently misinterpreting a prospect’s physical potential. These new tests can also be crucial in helping prospects hit important thresholds, when their Combine numbers fell short. And when the validity of these numbers can’t be tested, that raises concern.

Not many 2020 NFL Draft prospects have gone the route of private athletic testing in the midst of the social distancing period, but if more join the wave, the Redskins need to be careful in how they integrate these new testing numbers into their evaluations. The tape never fails in providing supplementary information, and amidst all this uncertainty, that’s where the Redskins should always end up.