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Redskins at Packers Picks, Predictions & Betting Odds
- Odds: Packers -12.5
- Over/Under: 41.5
- Kickoff: 1 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: FOX
Odds as of Thursday evening.
A majority of bettors are laying the 12.5 points with the Green Bay Packers against the Washington Redskins, but is that the smart play?
Our experts preview this Week 14 game, with analysis of key matchups and a pick on the double-digit spread.
Redskins-Packers Injury Report
Which team is healthier?
Jamaal Williams (knee) was a new addition to the Packers’ injury report, but given he was at least limited, I’d expect him to play unless the Packers state otherwise. Everyone on their report was at least practicing in some fashion, indicating they’ll likely suit up on Sunday.
The Redskins could be shorthanded at receiver with Trey Quinn (concussion) and Paul Richardson (hamstring) missing practice on Wednesday and Thursday. Terry McLaurin, Steven Sims and Kelvin Harmon would take over on 3-WR sets if Quinn and Richardson are ruled. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Redskins Offensive Line vs. Packers Defensive Line
The most obvious mismatch is at quarterback, but I want to focus on another mismatch that I think will allow the Redskins — the hottest team in the NFC East with a two-game winning streak — to stay within this number.
First of all, I am required by contract to mention how much I loved this Packers team coming into the season, which is the reason they were my only futures bet. I loved what they did on the defensive side of the ball by addressing their needs at safety and drastically improving their edge rush with the additions of the two Smiths (Preston and Za’Darius).
Green Bay’s defense is aggressive and the offense is dynamic with a future Hall of Fame quarterback at the helm. If they get into the dance (as they should), the Packers will have a puncher’s chance.
That said, some underlying metrics indicate they’re pretty fortunate to be sitting at 9-3. I mean what if I told you that, from a net yards per play perspective, the Redskins sit ahead of the Packers? It’s true — Green Bay ranks 27th in the league at -0.6 while Washington is two spots ahead at -0.4.
Now, that obviously doesn’t tell the whole story as the Packers are excellent on third downs with Aaron Rodgers, who also doesn’t turn the ball over. But it does show you that this team hasn’t been as dominant as their record indicates.
Their defense has holes, particularly when it comes to stopping the run. The Pack ranks 28th in Football Outsiders’ rush defense DVOA and are allowing 4.7 yards per rush, which also ranks 28th in the NFL. It really starts with the defensive line, which ranks 32nd in adjusted line yards and 31st in stuff rate (per Football Outsiders).
The Packers simply aren’t getting a push up front and can be pushed around by opposing offensive lines to create lanes for their backs. And they aren’t great at the second level up the middle with usually only Blake Martinez and extra safety Ibraheim Campbell in their preferred dime scheme.
Meanwhile, I’m a big fan of the interior of this Washington offensive line. Chase Roullier has been a revelation at center between Ereck Flowers and big Brandon Scherff. Roullier and Scherff have been two of the best in the league at their respective positions while Flowers has graded out fairly well in run blocking — he’s top-20 among 64 guards with at least 400 snaps this season, per PFF.
Derrius Guice has recently returned and looked fully up to game speed in an explosive showing against the Panthers. Guice adds the dynamic piece the Redskins have been lacking in the backfield to complement Adrian Peterson grinding out yards. Of the 76 running backs with at least 25 carries this year, Guice ranks No. 1 overall in yards after contact on all touches and second in Elusive Rating, trailing on Kareem Hunt (per PFF).
With a rookie QB on the road in Lambeau, you can expect Bill Callahan to go even more run-heavy than he already has been going, and I think the Skins can get a lot of push up the middle for Guice, Peterson and Co. to keep the sticks moving against a very vulnerable Packers run defense. — Stuckey
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
- Projected Spread: Packers -14
- Projected Total: 42
The Redskins are coming off an upset road win over the Panthers, which ultimately led to the firing of Ron Rivera.
I had previously mentioned the Redskins would be a team to back in games that were expected to be close as their strengths are their run game and defense. This week against the Packers, however, it’ll be tougher to keep it close, which will force Dwayne Haskins to drop back to pass more — a recipe for disaster. Therefore I’m staying away from this line as I don’t see much value either way.
I have this marked as the slowest-projected paced game for Week 14 and am also in line with the total. However, there could be two different game flows for each half.
I anticipate the Packers will get out to an early lead against the Redskins’ pass funnel defense while the Redskins offense should be able to run the ball on the Packers’ run funnel defense. Therefore I’m leaning on the first-half over and will switch to the second-half under (depending on the score) as these offenses will then be playing into the strengths of the opposing defense. — Sean Koerner
Stuckey: Redskins +12.5
In what should be a lower-scoring game with a total drifting toward 41 — Washington is dead last in seconds per play in neutral situations while Green Bay also doesn’t play fast — catching 13 with a team that should be able to run the ball against a team that’s a little overvalued in the market is too good to pass up.
Anything over 10.5 is worth a stab in my opinion.
Stuckey is 296-234-7 (55.8%) overall betting on the NFL. You can follow him in our free app.