Redskins offseason starts with decision on Preston Smith

The Redskins have a lot of items on the agenda this offseason, but there’s one that serves as a prerequisite for all.

The debate surrounding the Washington Redskins draft needs has already swelled to a furor in the early months of the 2019 offseason. Anything from quarterback to cornerback is on the table in Round 1, and Washington will keep all their options on the table.

Another sizable draft need this offseason is edge rusher; Ryan Kerrigan is getting older, even as he continues to earn Pro Bowl recognition, and if the Redskins end up having a void opposite him, they’ll need more than Ryan Anderson and Pernell McPhee to fill it. Thus, drafting an edge rusher like Jachai Polite, Clelin Ferrell, or Brian Burns in Round 1 makes sense.

But only if Preston Smith doesn’t come back.

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For now, Smith fills the theoretical void, as he has since he was drafted in the second round of the 2015 NFL Draft. While his statistics haven’t been eye-popping, Smith has been more productive than his numbers (24.5 sacks in four years; 4.0 sacks in 2018) indicate.

Smith logged the highest Pro Football Focus grade of his career in 2018, finishing with a cumulative grade of 76.9 (He’d never been above 65.4 in his previous three years). Don’t trust Pro Football Focus’ cumulative grades? Check out his pass rush productivity metric. By dividing total pressures by pass rushing snaps, you can determine how disruptive a defensive lineman is.

In 2018, Smith logged 53 total pressures on 468 pass rushing snaps, good for an 11.3 pass rush productivity rating. His rating compares favorably to those of other free agent edge rushers, such as Demarcus Lawrence (12.3), Jadaveon Clowney (10.3), and Brandon Graham (12.4). Frank Clark is one of the few who drastically eclipses Smith’s mark, with a rating of 14.1.

For now, the Redskins have some time to think about whether or not they’ll keep Smith around. He appears to be ascending, and he still has some untapped potential, and even if he remains stagnant with his development for the rest of his career, he’s still a serviceable starter whose stats don’t quite do his presence justice. The question for Washington is this: Do they bank on Smith’s continued development, this far into his career? Or do they start over, and use valuable draft capital on a position that was already filled in 2018, to gamble on greater potential?

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Whatever the case, Preston Smith’s fate takes priority for the Redskins in the offseason of 2019. It’s the domino that falls first.

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