Redskins Reality Checks Week 12: Thanksgiving Day matchup provides Redskins unique opportunity

With the odds getting longer, the Redskins face a crossroads in Dallas. Win and all but clinch the NFC East. Lose and the season’s on life support.

All too often, individual regular season games are given way too much significance in our minds. It’s rare that a game in Week 12 is a “must-win”. It’s rare that a team with a one-game division lead could be considered at risk of their season falling apart with a loss in Week 12. It’s also rare that a single regular season game carries enough symbolic significance to alter the course of an entire franchise.

But I don’t think it’s hyperbolic to say those three things about this particular game in this particular season under these particular circumstances. Consider the scenario surrounding this week’s Thanksgiving Day tilt between Washington and Dallas.

Last Saturday, the Redskins held a two-game lead over Dallas in addition to the tie-breaker, having beaten them earlier in the season. The Redskins were playing host to the Texans, and the Cowboys were facing the Atlanta Falcons in Atlanta. Most unbiased observers, including Vegas oddsmakers, would have expected both the Cowboys and Redskins to lose those games, leaving the division race unchanged.

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For much of Sunday afternoon, it looked like that would be the case. The Falcons were beating the Cowboys, and the Redskins were really having trouble getting out of their own way against the Texans. Then, in the span of about 30 minutes in real time, the Cowboys took the lead over Atlanta, and the Redskins lost their starting quarterback for the remainder of the season.

So, instead of a two-plus game lead, the Redskins will arrive in Dallas with the opportunity to lose their division lead. And they will do so relying on the oft-injured, turnover prone, Colt McCoy under center. If they go into Dallas and lose, it’s hard to imagine them mustering the wherewithal to take back the division by year’s end. And if they manage to lose their division lead and miss the playoffs, it is not far-fetched at all to think that Jay Gruden and even Bruce Allen could be shown the door.

If they find a way to win, it’s even harder to believe either Dallas or Philly could mount enough of a charge to catch them down the stretch. A two-game lead plus a 3-0 division record, with only five games remaining, is not insurmountable in normal circumstances, but with the way the Cowboys and Eagles have played this season, it very well might be. And with a division win and playoff berth, behind McCoy and Gruden, it’s likely Gruden gets another extension and there’s a real quarterback controversy in Washington again this offseason.

So, with the importance of the game as the backdrop, let’s jump into our Redskins Reality Checks for the Week 12 tilt on Thanksgiving Day in Dallas.