Don’t get me wrong. I don’t want to throw my hat into this ring.
For most of the offseason, debates have been raging, with both the former and current Washington Redskins quarterbacks at the center of the squabble. I’m not going to pick a side in the Kirk Cousins vs. Alex Smith debate, but I might help you make that decision, if you choose to do so.
The widely-held consensus is that both quarterbacks are good at what they do. Many view Alex Smith as the more polished product, but both quarterbacks are in the top half in the NFL at their position.
Statistically, Kirk Cousins, over his three years starting with the Redskins, has outperformed Alex Smith, passing for over 4,000 yards three times in a row, while Smith only hit that mark for the first time in 2017.
Smith’s touchdown-to-interception ratio was better (61 to 20, just over 3 to 1) over that span, but Cousins still threw more touchdowns, amassing a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 81 to 36.
The rest of the raw stats, from completion percentage to passer rating, have been comparable, but the most recent body of work is the 2017 season, and in that season, Alex Smith showed a different version of himself from years past. His passer rating was the highest of the two quarterbacks over the past three years, and he achieved a touchdown-to-interception ratio of 26-5.
If the Redskins are getting the most updated version of Alex Smith, then he could be an upgrade from Kirk Cousins. In some areas, it’s splitting hairs, and from a raw statistical standpoint, taking the last three years into account, Cousins might be the better choice. To paint a better picture, let’s take a look at some advanced stats from the 2017 season, courtesy of Player Profiler.
Redskins QB Debate – Advanced Stats
First, let’s gloss over the sample size. In 2017, Kirk Cousins played 581 passing snaps, while Smith played 579. On those snaps, Cousins registered 540 pass attempts, while Smith came in at 505 (It is notable that Smith sat a game toward the end of the season due to an injury; Pat Mahomes started in his place). So from an opportunities standpoint, Cousins and Smith were nearly equal. Cousins averaged 33.8 passing attempts per game, while Smith, who played just fifteen games, averaged 33.7.
Delving into the intricacies of the game, it’s clear that there are two specific passing categories that bear great importance, in terms of moving the football and scoring touchdowns: Red zone passing, and deep passing. In both these categories (but moreso deep ball passing), Smith was better than Cousins in 2017. With similar snap opportunities, Smith passed for 13 red zone touchdowns and no interceptions, while Cousins threw 17 touchdowns and three interceptions.
Cousins’ touchdown number is better, and his completion percentage in that area was also slightly better. But the interceptions are not ideal. With his three red zone interceptions, Cousins is tied with only Dak Prescott and Brett Hundley, and second in that category to Deshone Kizer alone, who had six red zone interceptions last year.
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Smith’s 38 incompletions, in relation to Cousins’ 32, isn’t an ideal number. After all, with each incompletion, a down is lost. But Smith is clearly a safer quarterback in scoring territory. He might not take as many close-quarters risks, but he won’t end promising drives with zero points. At the least, he’ll end them with three points. And with a bevy of promising red zone targets in D.C., along with a talented running back in Derrius Guice, Smith should be well-suited for success in his new offense (It’s also worth noting that new Redskins WR Paul Richardson was one of the league’s most successful receivers on end zone targets; Russell Wilson, when passing to Richardson in the end zone, had a perfect passer rating).
Pivoting to deep passing, it’s apparent that Smith wasn’t just better than Cousins, but one of the best in the NFL, in 2017. Smith had just one less deep passing attempt than Kirk Cousins (69 to 68). Factoring in the one game lost by injury, the difference is of minimal importance.
What is important is that Alex Smith, according to NFL.com’s Matt Harmon, was the best deep passer in the NFL in 2017. Judged by four categories (Deep passer rating, deep pass completion percentage, percentage of total yards, and touchdown rate on deep passes), Smith boasted a first-place ranking in three of those four categories. On deep passes, Smith logged an insane 134.7 passer rating, a completion rate of 54.2 percent (the next highest was Drew Brees with 46 percent), a percentage of total yards of thirty percent, and a touchdown rate of 18.6 percent. Kirk Cousins was ranked as the ninth-best deep passer in the same article. Both quarterbacks were good. But Smith was in a league of his own.
Even though Smith still had the league’s highest deep passer rating without Tyreek Hill, the notion that Hill didn’t immensely help Smith is wrong. The utilization of a pure deep threat like Hill drastically improved the Chiefs’ offense; having a player with that kind of speed and tracking ability is a luxury that the Redskins have lacked since DeSean Jackson. And until Paul Richardson proves it, they don’t have it. So they’ll have to help Smith a different way.
The final two advanced stats on Player Profiler, for quarterbacks, are labeled “Supporting Cast Efficiency” and “Protection Rate”. Respectively, these criteria measure the efficiency of a quarterback’s entire supporting cast, based on production, and the amount of snaps on which a quarterback does not experience pressure.
Surprisingly, Cousins’ and Smith’s supporting cast efficiency ratings for 2017 are fairly close. Smith had a supporting cast efficiency rating of +13.79, good for No. 2 at his position. Meanwhile, Cousins, in Washington, came in at No. 5 with a supporting cast efficiency rating of +7.76. Cousins had more passes dropped (35 to 26), but the discrepancy is surprisingly low between the two signal callers.
This isn’t to say that there wasn’t a notable gap between the two quarterbacks’ supporting casts, in terms of consistency and efficiency. But Cousins, for all of the movement around him, had some solid weapons. He had Vernon Davis, who has been a drastically underrated player with the Redskins. He had Chris Thompson for eleven weeks. And he had Jamison Crowder, who, despite his physical limitations, is a very good slot receiver. Additionally, Josh Doctson actually had a fairly decent “rookie” season. At 25 years old, the clock is ticking for Doctson, but he logged over 500 receiving yards and six touchdowns in 2017. He’s far from hopeless as the team’s No. 1a receiver. With the added pieces this offseason, the Redskins’ current supporting cast can easily match the effect of last year’s Chiefs cast. It’s a fact.
And finally, we come to protection rate, which is primarily a reflection of a team’s offensive line. The results here come as no surprise. Neither Smith nor Cousins had a perfect line situation, but Smith only encountered pressure on 9.7 percent of his passing snaps, while Cousins, behind T.J. Clemmings, Shawn Lauvao, and Tyler Catalina, experienced pressure on 12.9 percent of his passing snaps. That gap may not seem big at first glance, but Cousins pressure rate was fifth-worst in the league, while Smith’s was eleventh-best. To Cousins’ credit, he made some great throws under pressure, and he had a higher completion percentage under pressure than Smith, but the constant threat of being sacked (and fumbling the football, as Cousins did well) had to be on his mind. Smith might have that same issue, if the line can’t get healthy and stay healthy.
Overall, Kirk Cousins ended the 2017 season with a true passer rating of 101.0, while Smith ended his 2017 campaign with a true passer rating of 113.6, good for the best in the league. This trend continued with the two quarterbacks’ true completion percentages. Cousins came in at 69.3 percent, while Smith was second to only one with 73.3 percent. Cousins was good. But Smith was better.
Redskins QB Debate – Money throws, danger plays
We’ve touched on a lot of advanced quarterback metrics, but there are three categories on Player Profiler that we haven’t yet observed: Money throws, interceptable throws, and danger plays.
Per the Player Profiler site, a money throw is defined as “a pass requiring exceptional skill or athleticism, as well as critical throws executed in clutch moments”. Interceptable passes are fairly self-explanatory, and danger plays are defined as “any play the quarterback lacked awareness or took an unnecessary risk that could have resulted in a turnover”. These categories are about as purely focused on quarterbacks as stats can get. And Alex Smith was better than Kirk Cousins in all three of these statistical categories.
With the definition of money throws in mind, Smith logged 27 such throws over the course of the 2017 season, good for second place among the league’s quarterbacks, while Cousins, on 35 more passing attempts, only threw 15, good for ninth.
On the flip side, Cousins, in 2017, exceeded Smith’s numbers in the worst categories to do so. Cousins was one of the top ten worst quarterbacks in the NFL when it came to both interceptable passes and danger plays. Cousins threw 25 interceptable passes (ninth-worst) and executed 35 danger plays (sixth-worst). Smith, meanwhile, threw just 16 interceptable passes (seventh-least) and executed 21 danger plays (tenth-least).
For perspective, Deshone Kizer was the worst in the NFL in both categories, throwing 35 interceptable passes and executing a whopping 51 danger plays. Cousins wasn’t anywhere near Kizer, but he wasn’t particularly close to Smith, either. Cousins was closer to the midpoint between Smith and Kizer. It paints an interesting picture about Cousins’ level of play, in relation to Smith.
Danger plays aren’t necessarily bad; it depends on what kind of danger play it is. Risks have to be taken sometimes in the NFL, but if a quarterback lacks awareness, then it is truly a cause for concern. Thus, having less danger plays is better, and Smith was easily better than Cousins, in that regard. This isn’t to say that Cousins was a bad quarterback. But in terms of awareness, precision, decisiveness, and safety, Smith is a kind of quarterback that Jay Gruden hasn’t had yet. Cousins might take more risks, but Smith is ultimately more efficient, and last year, he showed he could take some risks of his own as well.
Oh, and one more thing: Smith was No. 1 in the NFL on play action completion percentage, with a 75 percent completion percentage. No. 1. The Redskins like play action. And now they have a running back worthy of attention from defenses. That could be huge. #RPOs for days.
What it means for the Redskins
Looking at the full picture, years back, it’s hard to say that either Smith or Cousins is definitively better than the other. Both are solid starters in the NFL, and both should do well with their new teams in 2018.
But in 2017, Smith was easily better than Cousins.
Alex Smith was more efficient than Cousins, and while in years past, Smith was known as a conservative game manager, he dispelled that reputation with his job on the line in 2017, earning a new reputation as one of the league’s best deep passers; an uber-effective game manager with the guts of a gunslinger.
Smith will miss Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce, but the Redskins’ receivers can make plays down the field, nonetheless. Josh Doctson showed his potential last year, and now, fully healthy and with more confidence, he could make a leap. Paul Richardson, meanwhile, has the sheer speed and route running ability to gain separation, and while Jamison Crowder doesn’t have that top-end speed, he can get open in the slot with his crisp quickness and route running as well.
The Redskins don’t have Tyreek Hill. But they do have a ton of weapons. Even Vernon Davis is a big play threat. Smith is just as well-equipped to succeed in D.C. as he was in K.C. It is worth noting that, in a Riggo’s Rag Podcast episode, KC Kingdom writer Travis Steffen stated that Smith doesn’t often take contested chances downfield; many of his attempts last year were made when receivers had separation (which isn’t a bad thing; it simply might spell doubt for Josh Doctson’s projected leap, or at least the magnitude of it). However, Steffen also said that Smith gives what his coaches ask of him. With Jay Gruden in Smith’s ear, he should keep taking chances, and with his natural precision, his arm could be a deadly one with the Redskins.
On one hand, Smith’s 2017 performance is an anomaly, compared to his career before that point. But on the other hand, 2017 Smith is the most updated version of Alex Smith. It’s hard to imagine him regressing back to his former self when he’s joining a coach who was known to get on Kirk Cousins’ case for taking too few risks, and he’s entering a situation where he has more suitable weapons than he did in Kansas City last year.
Next: Why the 2018 season will be pivotal for Jamison Crowder
The offensive line has to stay healthy, and it will be up to several new additions, such as Paul Richardson (who, with his red zone ability and downfield speed, could be very, very important) and talented rookie running back Derrius Guice, to smoothen Smith’s transition. But Smith is a veteran. He’s reportedly already comfortable with the scheme, and with time to gain chemistry with his weapons, he can put the memories of Kirk Cousins to bed, and fast.
Extra: Per the request of a reader, here are all the NFC East quarterbacks, along with Kirk Cousins, and several correlating advanced metrics from 2017, acquired via Player Profiler:
TPR = True Passer Rating TC% = True Completion Percentage AYPA = Air Yards Per Attempt
Eli Manning: 88.0 TPR, 67.7 TC%, 3.3 AYPA, 11 money throws, 26 INT passes, 30 danger plays
Dak Prescott: 92.2 TPR, 67.0 TC%, 4.1 AYPA, 13 money throws, 23 INT passes, 30 danger plays
Alex Smith: 113.6 TPR, 73.3 TC%, 4.2 AYPA, 27 money throws, 16 INT passes, 21 danger plays *
Carson Wentz: 110.5 TPR, 65.4 TC%, 4.7 AYPA, 23 money throws, 20 INT passes, 32 danger plays
Kirk Cousins: 101.0 TPR, 69.3 TC%, 3.7 AYPA, 15 money throws, 25 INT passes, 35 danger plays
*– Alex Smith had 27 money throws in 2017, second only to Russell Wilson, who had 28.