Jay Gruden’s job isn’t safe in 2018. But it should be.
Jay Gruden is heading into his fifth year with the Washington Redskins. In his first four years, Gruden has never notched double-digit wins. Gruden only made the playoffs once, in 2015, as the beneficiary of an unusually weak NFC East. He lost in the first round of the playoffs. His career record is 28-35-1.
What I just gave you is a list of facts. Data points. Statistics. Statistics such as these are valuable. They quantify performance over a given period of time, and that data gathered is a mechanism through which conclusions can be made, in regards to coach and team performance, and whether changes must occur.
So naturally, if you take one look at Jay Gruden’s 28-35-1 record over four years, you’d be skeptical. Observe his records over the past three seasons, falling from 9-7 to 8-7-1 in 2016, and from 8-7-1 to 7-9 in 2017, and you’d notice a downward trend. Downward trends aren’t good.
So, looking at data alone, you may be inclined to make a change. To divert from Jay Gruden, and look elsewhere. But making such a brash decision, based on record alone, is short-sighted, and a horrendously misinformed. There’s no other way to put it.
Records and statistics and data points are useful. But there is certain information that statistics can not quantify.
Context.
Context is essential in evaluating Jay Gruden’s performance with the Washington Redskins. Observe his record alone, and you may be misled. If you refuse to look past Gruden’s record, then you must be biased against him. Because while his record shows that he should be on his last life, the context tells a very different tale.
So… let’s look at the context.
Inherited Chaos
It’s hard to fully grasp the unfettered destruction that Jay Gruden took into his own hands when he accepted the Washington Redskins’ head coaching job in 2014. After a brief glimpse of hope, the Washington Redskins were back to the quarterback carousel. Their roster was almost completely devoid of talent, and the cost to get Robert Griffin III still bore heavy weight on the team.
The utter chaos that Jay Gruden dealt with in 2014 is something that takes more than one year to recover from. In fact, it’s safe to say that the Washington Redskins didn’t recover from those dark days until this offseason, when they finally put together what should be both a solid free agent class and solid draft class, on paper.
To associate the Washington Redskins dysfunction in 2014 with that year alone is incorrect. Through 2015, 2016, and even 2017, the Washington Redskins were still recovering from a brief, yet destructive era that set the franchise back. They didn’t have a competent defense until 2017, and even then, it wasn’t deep enough to fend off injury.
Each year since Gruden’s arrival, the roster has slowly gained strength. The Washington Redskins finally have a deep defensive line, for the first time in Gruden’s tenure. For the first time in Gruden’s tenure, the Washington Redskins have assured stability and reliability at the quarterback position. But Gruden has never had close to a complete cast consistently at his disposal.
Only now, in 2018, do the Washington Redskins seem to be turning a new leaf. Bruce Allen’s role in the front office is diminishing, and Dan Snyder seems to be taking a step back, and letting the football people do their jobs. The roster is as strong as it’s ever been, and from a coaching perspective, Gruden has a very strong supporting cast, with coaches such as Bill Callahan, Jim Tomsula, Torrian Gray, Randy Jordan, and Kevin O’Connell all bolstering the ranks.
As we appreciate what we now have, however, let’s not forget that Gruden is one of the few who endured the transition from a darker time. From 2000 to 2013, the Washington Redskins had six coaches. There’s a reason Jay Gruden has remained, and ended the streak, while the others failed to do so.
Withstanding Adversity
So, you like stats. Let’s take a look at some stats from last year.
Twenty-four Washington Redskins players ended the 2017 season on injured reserve. Fourteen of those players were starters at one point in 2017. In addition to that number, Dustin Hopkins spent half of the season on injured reserve, before returning to the active roster in Week 15. The team also lost Su’a Cravens before the start of the season, due to a temporary retirement.
In addition to the injured reserve numbers, seventeen players, excluding those on injured reserve, missed at least one game over the course of the season, including Martrell Spaight, Quinton Dunbar, Jamison Crowder, and Bashaud Breeland.
It doesn’t matter how good a head coach is; If your roster gets hit this hard by injuries, and if that roster is not yet well-equipped enough to withstand those injuries, then bad things will happen. It will be much harder to compete. In the NFL, it’s important to maintain cohesion and continuity. With injury numbers of this magnitude, it’s utterly impossible.
But despite these injuries, which flared after the Washington Redskins’ Week 6 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers, Jay Gruden kept the Washington Redskins respectable. In a brutal twelve-game stretch to end the season, Gruden went 5-7 with a roster severely weakened by injuries.
By midseason, the Washington Redskins were signing players off the street. And still, Gruden kept them from nose-diving. He helped them win on the road in Seattle. That’s not even easy to do when healthy. He kept them close in games against the New Orleans Saints and Minnesota Vikings, two teams who would eventually face each other to decide who went to the NFC Championship. On paper, 7-9 isn’t impressive. With context, it suddenly is. It’s a magical thing.
The only other NFL teams who even compared to the Washington Redskins last year, in terms of injuries, were the Los Angeles Chargers and Houston Texans. The Texans went 4-12 in a weaker division than the NFC East, and the Chargers barely missed the playoffs in a weak AFC West. Both of them kept their coaches. The Washington Redskins were right to do the same.
Schematic Snags
Lost in the endless criticism of Jay Gruden’s record is the fact that he is one of the better, if not one of the best, play schemers and callers in the entire NFL. In 2015, he took a team with below-average talent to the playoffs. In 2016, he helped Kirk Cousins reach the doorstep of the 5,000-yard club. And in 2017, after losing two 1,000-yard receivers and experiencing a rash of injuries, as described earlier, Gruden still found a way to keep moving the football; by year’s end, his passing offense, despite all of its personnel deficiencies, was No. 12 in the NFL.
Gruden was instrumental in not only given Kirk Cousins the support and trust he needed to take over the starting job in 2015, but he also put Cousins in a scheme that almost ensured his success. Gruden creates plays that naturally work receivers open with intersecting routes, misdirections, and intricate details. He’s very good at scheming to opponents’ weaknesses, as evidenced with Jordan Reed’s breakout season in 2015, when Gruden unleashed Reed upon linebackers who couldn’t cover him up the middle.
Gruden’s offensive schemes are supported by statistical evidence, and there are others in the football community who recognize Gruden’s technical prowess. Bleacher Report’s Doug Farrar, ahead of the 2017 season, praised Gruden’s ability as an effective West Coast mind. Farrar noted Gruden’s skill at using mismatches to trick defenses into stacking certain areas of the field, leaving other options open, using DeSean Jackson and his speed as an example as a possible decoy.
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Farrar ranked Gruden’s scheme as the No. 9 scheme in the entire NFL. In his article, Farrar looked ahead to the coming 2017 season, noting that Gruden would be tested without a deep threat in DeSean Jackson. However, Farrar capped off that thought by articulating this: “No matter who he has on the field, Jay Gruden will find ways to match the West Coast philosophy with deeper route combinations because he’s one of the best in the business when it comes to drawing them up”.
Farrar is a fan of Gruden’s scheme, and he also believes that Gruden could have done even better in previous years, had he not had so many factors working against him. Farrar stated, in a recent interview on 106.7, that “Jay Gruden schemed with one hand tied behind his back last year”. He noted Kirk Cousins’ inconsistent vision and inability to find open receivers, a trait that Gruden was noticeably frustrated with last season.
In an article by NBC Sports’ J.P. Finlay, Gruden, when presented with a quote by Cousins saying that he’d throw 20 interceptions if he played the way Gruden wanted him to, remarked: “He’d also throw about 60 touchdowns”.
Gruden’s schemes are very quarterback-friendly, and in the right hands, his scheme can lead this team far. In Alex Smith, Gruden may have found the perfect quarterback for his scheme. Smith is a more polished NFL quarterback than Cousins. He’s a veteran who has all the smarts necessary to maximize the talent around him, and with a reputation as an adept decision maker, he should make the most out of the options that Gruden gives him.
Furthermore, with Derrius Guice entering the fold as a credible running threat, and Paul Richardson filling the void left by DeSean Jackson as a speed receiver, Gruden once again has the weapons at his disposal to stay one step ahead of the defense. He’s done just as much with less.
Gruden receives an unfair amount of criticism for his “in-game blunders”. Yes, he’s not perfect. He was inconsistent on third and short, and in the red zone last year. But when bringing up those points, do not forget how Kirk Cousins may have handicapped the offense in the red zone. Do not forget every play where receivers ran open. Remember every time a receiver runs free into the end zone. Gruden schemed that play.
Judging by how well the Washington Redskins moved the football through the air, Gruden had many more good plays than bad ones. His running offense wasn’t so effective. But remember what he was working with. Gruden consistently maximizes minimal talent, and in 2018, in a year when he finally has a solid cast of talent across the board, there’s no reason to think he can’t find new heights.
Attracting Respect
“He’s a better coordinator than he is a head coach.”
This is a statement that is true for many who have flirted with head coaching roles. It was true for current Washington Redskins defensive line coach Jim Tomsula when he spent a year as the San Francisco 49ers’ head coach.
The same cannot be said for Gruden, however. He was a very good offensive coordinator, and that was what led to him garnering consideration for the Washington Redskins’ head coaching job back in 2014. Since then, he’s only provided more evidence that he’s just as good a head coach as he was a coordinator in Cincinnati.
His ability to scheme is one thing, but it’s clear, upon simply listening to Gruden speak, that he has the right demeanor and the right mindset to be a head coach in the NFL. Gruden is a relaxed, level-headed coach, but at the same time, he doesn’t mince words, and he knows when to be more demanding.
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Players in the NFL value a balance. It’s important to stay on schedule, and keep a clear goal in focus. But in contrast, it’s important to cultivate and sustain a level of camaraderie and kinsmanship, among both coaches and players. When co-workers are more comfortable together, they work better. It’s a proven truth in every workplace, and the NFL is no different.
Gruden is the perfect boss for the Washington Redskins. Per Jamaul Forrest of 247 Sports, Gruden is “a player’s coach, and respected by his guys, and also shares the credit along with former GM Scot McCloughan for changing the culture of Washington.”
Culture is important, and it is fragile. Replacing a head coach is no small change. All head coaches have different ways of doing things, and if Gruden’s strategy matches his personnel, then the Washington Redskins should sooner give him a few more lives than go searching for other options. It’s as simple as the old adage: If it’s not broke, why fix it?
But what about his record?
Forget the record if you don’t know what lies behind it. Don’t present data without context.
It’s understandable why some may be hesitant to anoint Jay Gruden as one of the league’s underrated coaches. Despite context, which is important nonetheless, there’s no way I can say that Gruden is a top ten coach, because he hasn’t proven it yet. He has had inconsistencies with play calling, especially on third and short, and in the red zone (Although having a talent like Derrius Guice at running back should help immensely with this).
It’s okay to be skeptical of Gruden. But be sure that you go beyond his record in your assessment of the tenured head coach. Just as judgement should be passed for a coach’s failings, credit must be given when he deserves it. And Jay Gruden deserves far more credit than he receives.
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In the face of adversity, Gruden has stood tall. Handed a mess in 2014, he withstood, and survived the transition into the next era. Now, in 2018, with his most talented roster yet, and with a cast of players that trusts him and believes in him as a leader, Gruden has his best chance yet to prove that he is what the context suggests him to be.
Time will tell if the context proves true. It often does.
Conclusion
Jay Gruden has yet to prove he can win in the playoffs. He has yet to prove that he can win consistently with a stable roster. He has yet to prove anything, because he hasn’t been given the proper opportunity. Gruden knows he needs to produce this year. Everyone knows it. But the premonition that the Washington Redskins need to fire him, or would be better off letting him go and starting over, is unequivocally absurd.
Gruden, for the time being, is on the hot seat in 2018. No one has come out to say he is. And even he seems confident that his job is safe. But the history of Dan Snyder is a long one, and it too often spells the doom of coaches who simply didn’t have a chance to succeed. His impatience trumps basic judgement. Jay Gruden finally has his chance, after years of misfortune. But could it be just a season too late?
So much has been working against Gruden in his tenure with the Washington Redskins. Behind his 7-9 record in 2017, a record that suggests regression, there lies the truth: The Washington Redskins roster was demolished by injuries. Jay Gruden’s quarterback possessed fundamental limitations that hindered him from taking Gruden’s scheme to its full potential. And even with a healthy roster, Gruden’s weapons were a vast downgrade from what he had the year before.
And he still almost led the Washington Redskins to a winning season.
Regardless of how secure his job may be, Jay Gruden is a potential solution. He is not a problem. Yes, he has his inconsistencies, like all coaches do. Both good and bad. But he has all the traits necessary to lead this team, and lead it well. He’s an adept offensive mind, who has shown that he has good judgement when it comes to bringing along new members to his staff. He’s a level-headed, relaxed coach who still knows when to kick it up a notch, and through his demeanor, he naturally attracts respect from his players. His record may be 28-35-1. But there are so many more factors that go into those numbers. It’s the context that matters.
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Do not long for change for the sake of change and nothing else. The Washington Redskins are trending upward, and its in no small thanks to Gruden. Gruden has kept the team afloat amidst a bevy of unfortunate circumstances, and if he can earn a clean bill of health, he can take the Washington Redskins far in 2018. Observe his records alone, and you may be skeptical. But delve into the context, and there’s no reason to think otherwise.